TNF player props: Where to put 'The Wallet' for 49ers-Seahawks
Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"We're lucky they're even interested in us in the first place. We've got a show about nothing. With no story. What do you think, they're up there going, 'Maybe we should give those two guys, who have no experience and no ideas, more money?'" - Jerry to George after he passes on NBC's offer to produce their sitcom pilot.
The 49ers were ready to go into the season with Trey Lance and Brock Purdy. Talk about limited experience. Two quarterbacks on rookie contracts were supposed to allow San Francisco to keep a loaded roster intact. When push came to shove, Jimmy Garoppolo went back into negotiations to keep his 49ers tenure alive for another year. Two injuries later, and it's Purdy who excelled in his pilot episode. Meanwhile, San Francisco had to go into its wallet for a fourth quarterback - veteran uber-journeyman Josh Johnson, who's had more jobs than George Costanza.
'The Wallet'
Season 4 of 'Seinfeld' started with three different hour-long double episodes. Presumably, that was the network's attempt to take advantage of the sitcom's popularity. It was at the point in the show's run when the studio audience would wildly cheer when Kramer entered his first scene. After less than two games, Purdy's already gaining Kramer-like popularity, with Shanahan guiding the rookie like an offensive coaching Svengali.
'The Wallet' was the front half of a "to be continued" episode. The 49ers won the first meeting with the Seahawks easily. But San Francisco added Christian McCaffrey while this rivalry was on a "to be continued" pause. Like "Crazy" Joe Davola on Kramer's head, the running back is ready to make an imprint in this matchup.
Seattle allows the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs, but San Francisco only threw twice to a tailback in Week 2. With Deebo Samuel out and the team on a short week, McCaffrey should be more involved in the passing game regardless of who starts at quarterback. He's had 34-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games since being limited in his 49ers debut. Even the slightest increase in usage should put McCaffrey over.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey over 37.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Jerry opens "The Wallet" with a stand-up bit about the different vantage points of looking at the dashboard. If you're looking at the needle on the gas gauge from the passenger seat, the tank looks closer to empty. Samuel being out might appear troublesome. But if you've been watching San Francisco straight on, you know Brandon Aiyuk has technically been the Niners' leading receiver.
That's taken responsibility off George Kittle in the passing game, but the tight end loves facing Seattle - something that might be lost after he missed the first matchup. Kittle had 22 targets in two games against the Seahawks last season, exploding on the road for 181 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle is having trouble defending tight ends this campaign, allowing the fourth-most yardage to the position.
Without Samuel, Aiyuk should get coverage attention near the goal line since he's recorded seven scores this season. Purdy or Johnson will look for Kittle in the red zone in the toughest road environment San Francisco has faced this season. We're getting a price up over +200 because Kittle has just four touchdowns in 11 games played in 2022.
Pick: George Kittle anytime touchdown (+210)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
The episode is called "The Wallet" because Jerry's dad believes someone stole his wallet while he was being treated by a New York back specialist. If you've been hoping for big things from our long-shot touchdown bets this season, you also might be running around yelling, "My wallet's gone! My wallet's gone!" That's why they're long shots.
Colby Parkinson isn't Kittle, just as Costanza isn't Ted Danson. Nominally the Seahawks' third tight end, Parkinson plays 33% of his team's offensive snaps per game. He's been targeted in 10 of 13 contests this season, and he's caught a pass every matchup he's been thrown to. Parkinson scored in the season opener but hasn't found the end zone since. If he does, we'll be as excited as Jerry, George, and Kramer when Elaine surprises them on her return from Europe.
If Parkinson doesn't score, then we'll react like Elaine when she touches her face after the guys ask her about her relationship - a classic tell that things aren't going great.
Pick: Colby Parkinson anytime touchdown (+1100)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.