MNF best bets: Unpacking Packers' playoff chances against Rams

Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football offers an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there'll always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

It's hard to believe, but a viable path exists for the Packers to make the playoffs. The help they need is within reason. While Green Bay has to run the table, there's just one road contest left (at Miami), and Monday's matchup is the first of three remaining games at Lambeau Field. A wild-card spot isn't out of the question.

The 4-9 Rams don't have that same path despite producing one of the last-minute comebacks of the year in Week 14 at home against the Raiders. In Baker Mayfield's debut with L.A., the quarterback took a crash course in Sean McVey's offense and aced the test after crushing the metaphorical essay question in the two-minute drill.

Rams @ Packers (-7, 39.5)

The Rams have one of the worst rush offenses in the league, but they've shown improvement in their last three games. However, part of that came from using mobile quarterback Bryce Perkins and facing the Seahawks' terrible run defense.

The Packers aren't very good at stopping the run, as just two teams have allowed more yards per carry in 2022. But this matchup should feel like something of a reprieve considering their last four games have come against Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry, and Josh Allen. That's a group of running threats you have to be wary of, and even the best game plans might be futile against them.

Mayfield had 10 more days to learn Sean McVay's offense for Monday's contest, but he and Cam Akers shouldn't be as dangerous for Green Bay's defense. Defensive signal-caller De'Vondre Campbell returned from a month off before the Packers' bye, and the club's defense held the Bears to three field goals in the final three quarters of a season-extending win.

However, this line should be higher based on the Rams' market rating heading into their home game against Las Vegas when they were nearly a touchdown underdog combined with the common rating of the Packers as an average team.

Admittedly, laying significant points with Green Bay hasn't been a profitable strategy for bettors this season. Still, those other situations had Aaron Rodgers woefully out-of-sync with his pass-catchers. Also, the Giants and Jets - two teams the Packers lost against - have proven better than the market had thought at the time.

I'm willing to have a bet die on the hill that Los Angeles with Mayfield isn't better than we think. The team trailed the Raiders 16-3 through 57 minutes and finished with just 282 yards of offense, even after a pair of late touchdown drives.

With a healthier Rodgers able to connect with Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, and Robert Tonyan and an effective run game that Green Bay's leaned on, this sets us up as the best situation for the Packers to play their best contest. That should be good enough to cover a full touchdown.

Pick: Packers -7

AJ Dillon over 10.5 receiving yards

Dillon's had the lion's share of the snaps against the Bears, and the Packers have successfully integrated him into the passing game over the last two matchups. With blustery conditions perfect for a big, punishing tailback, we'll expect Dillon to be on the field a lot Monday night. Look for Rodgers to use him as an outlet in the passing game and for Dillon to go over this low receiving total.

Baker Mayfield longest pass completion under 33.5 yards

Mayfield's had just one pass completion longer than 34 yards since Week 1, and that was a short throw to Laviska Shenault that the Panthers' receiver turned into a long touchdown. Given the Rams will focus on trying to run against Green Bay in freezing conditions and Los Angeles' offensive line has struggled to protect for long stretches, we'll bet against a long pass completion for Mayfield.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.