NFL betting: How Jalen Hurts' injury affects the landscape
Late in the Eagles' 25-20 win over the Bears on Sunday, Jalen Hurts took the brunt of a Chicago defender's weight. He finished the game but was diagnosed with a sprained shoulder Monday. While Hurts hasn't been ruled out of Saturday's game against the Cowboys in Dallas, the betting market seems to think caution will rule the day.
Hurts was the MVP favorite going into Week 15, so his injury has ramifications in numerous betting markets. Here are the three levels of Hurts' pain:
1) Game-to-game rating
Eagles @ Cowboys (-6)
Some bettors may be surprised to find out the Cowboys are small favorites (-1.5) against the Eagles. As we tracked through the first three-quarters of the season, the Eagles and Cowboys were eventually rated equally in betting markets. Add in 1.5 points for home-field advantage, and you have the originally projected point spread.
We like to use a 1-100 scale in this space, and the NFC East rivals were both rated in the high 60s, occasionally touching 70 depending on the week. Where do the Eagles rate now with Gardner Minshew likely playing Saturday?
Following reports of Hurts' injury, the line for the Christmas Eve showdown was on the move, touching Cowboys -6.5 before encountering resistance and settling at -6. Working backward, that means the market thinks the Minshew-led Eagles are a 50/100 - purely league average. Other teams rated in the range are the Packers, Lions, and Vikings. Bettors should ask themselves if this is where this version of the Eagles should be.
2) Futures
Super Bowl (+550) / NFC champion (+130)
The Eagles are two games ahead of the Vikings and own the tiebreaker with three games to go. They'd have to lose all their remaining games, and both the Cowboys and Vikings would have to run the table for the Eagles to not get the bye. Assuming what we know about Hurts' injury is true, his next crucial game is likely a month from now, which shouldn't change the Eagles' likelihood of making the Super Bowl. In fact, a loss to the Cowboys this weekend might result in an adjustment that would create a buy opportunity on Philadelphia.
MVP (Hurts +550)
Hurts was a hot bet before the campaign, going from 45-1 early in the offseason to 25-1 before a game was played. He went to the odds-on favorite in the last couple of weeks.
His injury has pushed Patrick Mahomes to the favorite at -350, but Hurts' odds of +550 are an in-between position on whether he'll be back in the regular season. If he misses the final games, it's highly unlikely he can win, but oddsmakers can't make him 50-1 on the chance he misses just this one game.
We'd like to believe that Hurts' status as MVP front-runner through 14 games means that missing mostly meaningless games down the stretch wouldn't kill his candidacy, but we know that's not how voters' short attention spans work. Josh Allen (+600) and Joe Burrow (+600) have a prime-time showdown coming up as well.
Coach of the Year (Nick Sirianni -190)
Speaking of the "what have you done for me lately" element in award markets, Lions coach Dan Campbell was anywhere from 200-1 to 150-1 two weeks ago. After wins over the Vikings and Jets, he's now +185.
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni was at around -400 before the Bears game. The Eagles are less likely to win this Saturday, which means they're less likely to finish with a record of 16-1 or even 15-2. A 14-3 season is impressive, but candidates like Campbell, Kevin O'Connell (+2500), Brian Daboll (+3000), and Doug Pederson (+3000) all oversaw epic turnarounds.
3) Other games: Six degrees of separation
The final element of this sequence is how Saturday's game will affect the two teams' remaining contests and their opponents. Whose games get easier, and whose games get harder?
Eagles' opponents
With this mediocre rating for Philadelphia, it'd be -3 against the Saints in Week 17 and -5.5 against the Giants in the finale. Not ideal for either team, but better off than what their odds would've been without the uncertainty over Hurts.
The Saints (+1600) need a lot more help in order to win the NFC South - their best route to the playoffs. The Giants boosted their chances with a win in Washington and benefit from their matchup with the Eagles coming in Week 18 - when Philadelphia may have nothing to play for. New York is -700 to make the playoffs, so there's no positive bet to make there. But that could be an overreaction that makes the Giants missing the playoffs (+425) worth a look.
Cowboys' opponents
If the Cowboys win this week, they'd become more hopeful they can win the NFC East. That should have them fully engaged in a Week 17 game at Tennessee. Given the battle the Titans are in for the AFC South, a bet on the Jaguars (+120) is worth a play given they'll have home field for a Week 18 divisional showdown.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.