TNF player props: Is there a pick for Cowboys-Titans?
Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"You said going up the steps to her apartment was like being taken to a cell." - Jerry
"I would give anything to be going up those stairs again." - George, after he and Susan broke up.
You've been non-plussed with Thursday Night Football. It's not a legitimate contest, you say. Everyone's not at their best. You've contemplated breaking up with it - doing something else with your evening - but you stay.
With the Cowboys visiting the bruised and battered Titans - whose fate this season will be decided next week in Jacksonville regardless of this outcome - this matchup couldn't be more fake.
The Titans have no reason to play the few star players available to them as their fans yearn for Ryan Tannehill, the quarterback they didn't appreciate before he was lost for the season, whining like George after he and Susan break up in Episode 12 of Season 4 of "Seinfeld."
'The Pick'
It's a standalone game in the NFL, so there has to be a pick. In the context of this episode, the "pick" refers to Jerry being caught in a compromising position by his date. With the Titans effectively treating this like a preseason game, rather than exclaiming "no pick!" in our best Seinfeld voice, we'll look to a trio of Cowboys to have more success than Jerry had convincing the Calvin Klein model that it was merely a scratch.
The Titans have passed the Cardinals as the worst team in the NFL at defending the tight end. Tennessee gives up 69.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends and is fourth-worst on a per-catch basis. Meanwhile, Dalton Schultz has averaged 45.3 yards per game since returning from an early-season injury.
There's no reason for Dak Prescott to try risky throws. When he's dropping back, he should listen to the little man inside him, taking the easy throws to Schultz. Hopefully he's not like George, who admits "my little man's an idiot."
Pick: Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
'The Pick' could just as easily be called 'The Pic' as Elaine finds herself over-exposed by Kramer in a Christmas card picture. With the Cowboys big favorites on a short week, there's a good chance they treat the second half of this game as something of a bye week, not needing to expose their most sensitive stars.
Malik Davis played 19 snaps in Week 8, 11 snaps in Week 10, and 13 in Week 11. He got five carries in Week 10 against the Packers because Ezekiel Elliott was out with an injury, but the combined score of the other two high-volume games for Davis was 89-32 for Dallas. He may have had more carries in the fourth quarter against the Colts in a 54-19 win, but it was the Cowboys' defense who did most of the legwork. Still, Davis scored a late touchdown on just three touches.
With Tony Pollard out, Davis could make more than a Newman-esque cameo, trying his hardest to make a good impression on the rest of the NFL. He was available as high as +700 for an anytime score, but we'll also take a nip of him at 25-1 to score the Cowboys' last touchdown, passing on 33-1 to score the last touchdown of the game and avoiding a Titans' score in garbage time that would ruin a good long-shot bet.
Pick: Malik Davis anytime touchdown (+260) / Last Cowboys' touchdown (+2500)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
We're expecting Josh Dobbs to struggle as much as George trying to unzip his new jacket on his therapist's couch, but the market doesn't think much of the Titans' chances of scoring, leaving some big prices on the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo had 17 catches in the four games before Malik Willis had to start against Houston last week. Obviously, the move to Dobbs is on the premise of wanting to throw the ball more effectively, and outside of Treylon Burks, Okonkwo is the only pass-catcher on Tennessee that could break a big gain for a touchdown.
Asking the Titans to score may leave us regretting that decision like George heading back up Susan's stairs, but given the circumstance, we'll hope for a late Christmas miracle.
Pick: Chigoziem Okonkwo anytime touchdown (+750)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.