NFL Wild Card round-robin anytime touchdown parlay
The games are bigger come playoff time, but there are also fewer - meaning there's less to choose from when picking out the most valuable underdogs of the week. Sure, if you're desperate for five plays for a round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, you could go on a kamikaze mission with the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Ravens. However, with short prices in the other three games this Wild Card Weekend, there's just not much to work with.
The show must go on, though, and with the focus that six standalone games provide, we'll shift our approach to individual success - combing through the anytime touchdown markets for five players at medium-sized prices to find the end zone.
How it works
We parlay five touchdown scorers in 10 different three-player parlays. Using every combination of a three-player parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-player parlays and one five-player parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three players find the end zone. If four score, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five players score, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.
Who to play
*All odds from theScore Bet
Elijah Mitchell (+260)
Mitchell's price is longer than his bigger-name 49ers teammates - Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel - but given the extremely rainy conditions set for San Francisco on Saturday, it might be a situation where more hands mean less work. Mitchell looked spry in his return from an MCL sprain during Week 18 when he ran five times for 55 yards and two touchdowns. In three earlier games sharing the workload with McCaffrey, Mitchell had either more carries, more yards, or both. So he could be in for double-digit carries in a run-heavy game plan.
Evan Engram (+240)
Engram hasn't found the end zone as much as you'd think for a player with career highs in receptions and yards in his first season with the Jaguars, but that only means his anytime touchdown odds creep longer - which is a good thing.
The Chargers do well against opposing tight ends, likely because of Derwin James' presence in the middle of the field, but he may have his hands full with the other more notable Jaguars targets. Even Doug Pederson admits Engram is more of a receiver than a traditional tight end, and they could go against habit and look for him in the end zone more than once on Saturday night.
Dawson Knox (+200)
When the calendar turns to December, and the weather gets grim, that's Knox season. The Bills tight end has quietly scored in four straight games to close the season and has had a pair of touchdowns in each of the last two Bills playoff runs. The Dolphins allowed the fourth-most receptions and touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, including one to Knox in their most recent meeting.
Isaiah Hodgins (+270)
Hodgins has been a favorite of ours since the Giants plucked him from the Bills' practice squad midway through the season, almost immediately giving him a key role. He was lucky to see the field at the start of the season, but he ended it by being so valuable that New York rested him in Week 18. With four touchdowns in his last five games and another touchdown called back on Thanksgiving in Dallas, we're getting a great price on someone who's on the field for upwards of 90% of the Giants' offensive snaps. Daniel Jones' best game of the season came against the Vikings' porous pass defense, so there should be opportunities aplenty.
Chris Godwin (+160)
Godwin and Mike Evans are similarly priced, but I prefer Godwin's chances to score against the Cowboys on Monday night. Evans is the deep threat, but long bombs will be less likely to work, given the Cowboys' pass rush isn't likely to give Tom Brady time to go deep. Instead, Tampa Bay will rely on short passes to work its way down the field, and at least a few of Godwin's usual double-digit targets - from lining up in the slot - should happen in and around the end zone.
Here's how the odds look:
PARLAY | ODDS (Approx.) |
---|---|
Mitchell+Engram+Knox | +3000 |
Mitchell+Engram+Hodgins | +3700 |
Mitchell+Engram+Godwin | +3000 |
Mitchell+Knox+Hodgins | +3600 |
Mitchell+Knox+Godwin | +2800 |
Mitchell+Hodgins+Godwin | +3300 |
Engram+Knox+Hodgins | +2700 |
Engram+Hodgins+Godwin | +3000 |
Engram+Knox+Godwin | +2300 |
Knox+Hodgins+Godwin | +2800 |
Mitchell+Engram+Knox+Hodgins+Godwin | +30000 |
Who are your five touchdown scorers for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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