Super Bowl LVIII odds: Staying ready for 2023
Days, hours, and even minutes after Super Bowl LVII, the "way too early" NFL power rankings started hitting social media timelines throughout the land. Why do we all admit that these are too early? Because we have free agency, the NFL draft, trades, and the nightmare scenario of a key injury in training camp looming that could change the championship contention picture.
Some of last year's events didn't significantly alter a team's chances of winning - Tyreek Hill's exit, Tom Brady's unretirement, Davante Adams and Josh McDaniel landing in Sin City, and everything Russell Wilson. The Chiefs still won, while the Buccaneers, Raiders, and Broncos largely stunk.
Some things mattered a lot: A.J. Brown unlocked the Eagles' offense, the Giants got a real coach and good young players in the draft, and the Jaguars revamped their culture while spending more wildly than new lottery winners.
Knowing there's still so much to come, we wouldn't advise placing a bet that won't return a profit for a whole calendar year. But as a starting point, it's worth seeing how oddsmakers rate each team based on next season's strength of schedule.
Super Bowl LVIII odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | +550 |
| Bills | +800 |
| Bengals | +800 |
| Eagles | +800 |
| 49ers | +800 |
| Cowboys | +1600 |
| Ravens | +2000 |
| Chargers | +2000 |
| Jets | +2000 |
| Broncos | +3000 |
| Lions | +3000 |
| Packers | +3000 |
| Jaguars | +3000 |
| Dolphins | +3000 |
| Vikings | +3500 |
| Browns | +4000 |
| Rams | +4000 |
| Saints | +4000 |
| Giants | +4000 |
| Raiders | +5000 |
| Patriots | +6000 |
| Steelers | +6000 |
| Seahawks | +6000 |
| Titans | +6000 |
| Falcons | +7500 |
| Panthers | +7500 |
| Bears | +7500 |
| Buccaneers | +7500 |
| Commanders | +7500 |
| Colts | +15000 |
| Cardinals | +20000 |
| Texans | +20000 |
This is essentially the market's power ranking in odds form. If you want to bet on a team (say the Bears or Panthers at 75-1) to have a big offseason - that translates into contending in a vulnerable division and a price shortening - you could do that in the near term.
During the season, we look at how each side is rated based on the closing point spread of their previous game. We also provide the range I expect that team to play within on any given Sunday. For example, at their worst, the Chiefs will be 60/100, and they can push 80/100 at their best.
Below we'll look at where each club closed the 2022 season and a conservative estimate about its possible range for the 2023 campaign, acknowledging that all the x-factors above will change that calculus. Don't worry - we'll revisit this as the offseason progresses.
Ratings
| TEAM | 2022 CLOSE | 2023 RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 69 | 60-80 |
| Eagles | 72 | 60-80 |
| Bills | 72 | 60-80 |
| 49ers | 71 | 60-80 |
| Bengals | 64 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 63 | 55-75 |
| Dolphins | 59 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 58 | 50-70 |
| Ravens | 55 | 45-65 |
| Rams | 51 | 40-60 |
| Packers | 50 | 40-60 |
| Vikings | 50 | 40-60 |
| Jaguars | 49 | 40-60 |
| Buccaneers | 49 | 30-50 |
| Lions | 48 | 40-60 |
| Giants | 46 | 40-60 |
| Jets | 45 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 45 | 35-55 |
| Patriots | 44 | 40-60 |
| Titans | 44 | 40-60 |
| Steelers | 43 | 35-55 |
| Browns | 41 | 35-55 |
| Commanders | 40 | 30-50 |
| Cardinals | 40 | 25-45 |
| Panthers | 39 | 30-50 |
| Seahawks | 39 | 25-45 |
| Raiders | 38 | 35-55 |
| Colts | 37 | 30-50 |
| Broncos | 35 | 30-50 |
| Bears | 34 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 33 | 30-50 |
| Texans | 20 | 20-40 |
The 2022 rating
The top of the chart is out of order for a reason. The Chiefs' rating reflects that they were the underdogs in the Super Bowl, with concerns over Patrick Mahomes' ankle, their ability to protect and run the ball, and a defense that gave up 374 total yards to Jalen Hurts alone. I believe the Chiefs would be the favorite if the two sides played on a neutral site next week, but we'll never know for certain.
Before your eyes pop out, we can likely agree that the Bills (72) were overrated right up until the bitter end of their season, while the Bengals were underrated at 64. Given that they're now the same price to win the Super Bowl next year, it seems the market has rectified that.
There are two types of issues as you go down the 2022 rating column. The first is exemplified by the Rams, whose rating is from the last time Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp were available since they're still with the franchise. The second shows up with the Raiders, whose rating is based on their Week 18 game after they jettisoned Derek Carr. He's no longer considered part of the team, so we're left with Las Vegas' rating with Jarrett Stidham under center.
The 2023 range
The range column determines what type of quarterback any team might get next season and a conservative estimate of how that would change its market rating. For example, we can't assume the Jets will get Aaron Rodgers, but we can guess they'll get someone more proven than Zach Wilson or Mike White. It's the opposite in Tampa Bay, a club that was already mediocre and now has to replace the GOAT.
With the Cardinals and 49ers, signal-caller injury issues are a factor. But we can assume Arizona will be some degree of bad no matter how many games Kyler Murray starts and that San Francisco will be some degree of good no matter who plays quarterback for Kyle Shanahan.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.