NFL draft betting: Odds update on No. 1 pick, other markets
Bryce Young will be weighed today.
Stepping on the scales can be daunting for the best of us as we attempt to maintain our personal dignity. Yet NFL aficionados proclaimed this process a really big deal for Young's perceived chances of being a high-caliber quarterback.
Odds for the first name off the board have shifted since we last addressed the early betting markets for the NFL draft due to events over the past two weeks.
Player to be drafted first overall
| PLAYER | ODDS (Mar. 2) | ODDS (Feb. 16) |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -150 | -130 |
| CJ Stroud | +250 | +200 |
| Will Anderson | +800 | +550 |
| Jalen Carter | +2000 | +650 |
| Will Levis | +600 | +700 |
| Anthony Richardson | +550 | +5000 |
| Tyree Wilson | +2000 | +10000 |
The Bears admitted that they're motivated to trade the top pick. As we discussed previously, this is the first step toward a quarterback being chosen first overall. As a result, Young's odds have shortened, while the top defensive players' odds have lengthened.
Uncertainty looms over Georgia's Jalen Carter, who was booked on misdemeanor charges Wednesday in the accident that killed Devin Willock and Chandler LeCroy. Despite being released on bond and returning to the combine, Carter's odds have lengthened even more over concerns about his future.
Texas Tech pass-rusher Tyree Wilson has taken some of that implied probability and is the biggest riser on the defensive side, but he still remains a long shot.
Speaking of big movers, perhaps due to anticipation of how he'll measure out at the combine, Anthony Richardson's odds of going No. 1 rose from 2% to 15.4%. I note that in terms of implied probability, to show that a move from 50-1 to almost 5-1 is still relatively small.
Perhaps the most notable shifts are amongst the other quarterbacks. Will Levis' odds have gotten slightly shorter, and C.J. Stroud's are now more attractive.
While it seems more likely that a quarterback will go first overall - which was widely expected even before Chicago's admission - there's still not enough reason to believe Young warrants being the odds-on favorite.
Other NFL draft betting markets
Carter's legal issues prompted the "First Defensive Player" market to be taken down promptly after it was installed. However, two other widely available markets have opened up.
First quarterback drafted
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -160 |
| CJ Stroud | +200 |
| Will Levis | +500 |
| Anthony Richardson | +500 |
Since the Bears haven't traded the first pick yet, why would you bet Young at -150 in the overall market when you can pay slightly more and not have to worry about the chances a defensive player goes to the Bears if they can't trade the pick?
First wide receiver drafted
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | +140 |
| Jordan Addison | +200 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +250 |
| Jalin Hyatt | +500 |
| Zay Flowers | +1000 |
| Josh Downs | +2500 |
| Kayshon Boutte | +2800 |
Athletic evaluations from the combine should have some effect on a market in which Jalin Hyatt of Tennessee already moved from a much longer price. How those measurements further shift the odds will go a long way to deciding whether there's a bet to be made between now and April 25.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.