NFL draft betting: Is the 1st pick in?
Last week, we got the first inkling of who the Carolina Panthers were leaning toward with the first overall draft pick. After the Panthers gave up a haul to the Chicago Bears for the right to pick their next franchise quarterback, the market seemed to expect it would be C.J. Stroud, making him the favorite at as high as -300. The odds subsequently flipped toward Bryce Young, but it was still in doubt - that is, until Monday.
Player to be drafted 1st overall
| PLAYER | ODDS (4/18) | ODDS (4/12) | ODDS (3/2) | ODDS (2/16) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -1200 | -350 | -150 | -130 |
| C.J. Stroud | +700 | +210 | +250 | +200 |
| Anthony Richardson | +1500 | +2000 | +550 | +5000 |
| Will Levis | +4000 | +6000 | +600 | +700 |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Young is now up to a whopping -1200 favorite - the type of odds we see after word leaks that the franchise with the first selection has made an internal decision. That implies 92.3% certainty that Young's name will be the first called on April 27.
We suggested last week that there would be a trickle-down effect if Young's odds moved. In terms of both fan interest and betting, the second and third picks are now the turning point for the rest of the top 10, barring a massive change of heart in Charlotte.
Player to be drafted 2nd overall
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Will Anderson | +150 |
| Will Levis | +275 |
| C.J. Stroud | +350 |
| Tyree Wilson | +350 |
| Bryce Young | +900 |
| Jalen Carter | +2500 |
| Anthony Richardson | +2500 |
Stroud's prospects of being the first overall pick aren't the only thing to dip. He's also no longer the favorite to go second (which was hinted at when his odds to be the No. 2 pick weren't moving equally to Young's odds to go No. 1).
As we thought, pass-rusher Will Anderson (+400 last week) turned out to provide value to get picked second overall. His current odds of +150 are no guarantee, as the Texans are reportedly interested in Tyree Wilson, whose odds have shortened from 10-1 to +350. Trading this pick to a team that likes Stroud more than Houston does would cause another massive shift in these odds.
Player to be drafted 3rd overall
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | +225 |
| Anthony Richardson | +225 |
| Will Anderson | +275 |
| Tyree Wilson | +600 |
| Will Levis | +900 |
| Jalen Carter | +2000 |
With Stroud's modest potential fall, Anthony Richardson's probability of going No. 3 takes a hit on the oddsboard. The Cardinals still hold that pick and aren't expected to take a quarterback, but whether the Texans select a passer or not, Arizona could hold a bidding war for any team looking to jump ahead of the Colts, who are dying for a quarterback prospect.
If you're holding a ticket for Anderson (+400) to go No. 2, or a ticket on Stroud to go No. 3 (+650), you're sitting with some interesting long shots whose value has increased in just a few days. However, if you haven't made a bet yet, Anderson's odds in each market suggest that he's 66.7% to go either second or third. That would equate to fair odds of -150. As potentially the most polished player atop the draft, betting on Anderson's draft position under 3.5 has some value at any odds better than -150, especially since the path to his selection at No. 2 or No. 3 doesn't require a trade.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.