NFL draft betting: Big last-minute odds moves, bigger long shots, and the biggest surprise
In the hours leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, with the first pick long since decided, the anticipation started at the No. 2 selection. Will Anderson (-250) took the mantle as the favorite to go second overall, usurping Will Levis and Tyree Wilson after the pair jockeyed back and forth Wednesday.
That wasn't the end of the second spot drama. C.J. Stroud - no stranger to being the favorite to go No. 2 but sat at +400 for much of the day - skyrocketed to prices that indicated he'd surely follow Bryce Young. But since all we heard was how the Texans didn't love the available quarterbacks, who would pick the Ohio State product?
The answer: Houston. After all the speculation about the Texans not being crazy for anyone other than Young, they took Stroud anyway, setting off a wild night in Kansas City.
The Texans' two-step
The Texans weren't done surprising, as they traded up to No. 3 immediately after selecting Stroud - who spent time Thursday as the favorite to go third.
Houston grabbed the player we thought might be too good to pass up in the top three, cashing those with Will Anderson: Under 3.5 draft position tickets. That bet fluctuated with a plus price on each side in the lead-up to the draft. And the Cardinals accomplished their goal of selling their pick, just not to a team wanting a quarterback as many anticipated.
The Colts' smoke screen
Long rumored to be enamored with Levis, the Colts didn't need to fend off wildcard suitors looking to jump them for the Wildcat because they wanted Anthony Richardson all along. Any bettors who sifted through the smoke coming from Indianapolis cashed draft day prices as high as 12-1 for the former Florida Gator to go No. 4. In fact, Richardson's draft position moved from 4.5 to 7.5 leading up to the draft.
The long shots
The Lions were going to select Devon Witherspoon and were -200 to fill an obvious void at cornerback with him. Everyone knew it.
But no one knew what the Seahawks would do, and that's the difference between playing your cards close to your chest and not. Seattle selected Witherspoon, and not the player tabbed as the favorite to go No. 5 - Jalen Carter. Witherspoon closed 33-1 to go fifth and was well down the board to be a top-five pick.
Up next, we saw a classic example of how trades can shake up an oddsboard. The Cardinals were rumored to like offensive tackle Paris Johnson. While tickets cashed on Arizona picking an offensive lineman and Johnson being the first offensive lineman selected, no one could have predicted the two draft night trades that would see the Cardinals take him sixth overall.
A taste of Bijan
Then there are the worst-kept secrets that still work out. Whether you bet Bijan Robinson to go to the Falcons or at the eighth overall selection, you cashed a +240 ticket.
Eagles swoop in
We liked the Eagles to pick Jalen Carter if he lasted long enough to fall to them at No. 10. Philadelphia couldn't wait for one more pick and traded up with the Bears to No. 9 to take him. So the only bets to cash here are the Eagles picking Carter (+500), the Georgia product being the first defensive lineman selected (+200), and Carter's draft position at over 6.5 (+225).
Other significant market betting results
Quarterbacks taken in the first round: Under 4.5
Hendon Hooker had a draft position of 31.5, suggesting he had a 50-50 shot to be the fifth quarterback to go in the first round. Of course, the expectation was that Levis would be long since selected and that Hooker would also be the fifth signal-caller taken. Both SEC quarterbacks are still available, and the under cashed easily.
First wide receiver drafted: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-350)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a sizeable favorite to be the first wide receiver taken, despite a hamstring injury keeping him off the field for much of 2022. He had to wait longer than his market draft position of 13.5, which gave hope to those who bought Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston. Seattle eventually picked Smith-Njigba at No. 20.
First tight end drafted: Dalton Kincaid (+120)
Until the last week or so, Utah's Dalton Kincaid was the favorite to be the first tight end selected among a deep class of pro-ready players at the position. Notre Dame's Michael Mayer ultimately moved as the favorite, but it was Kincaid who the Bills wanted for Josh Allen after they traded up to No. 25. Mayer will have to wait until Day 2 to hear his name called.
Total offensive players drafted: Under 16.5 (+300)
Offensive players who fell out of the first round were replaced by defensive players, and the under cashed at a decent underdog payout.
The 2023 NFL Draft reminded us that you don't have to get every pick correct. However, having multiple ways to win a bet is the best plan of attack, especially since so much can change in the blink of an eye.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.