What the odds say: Can Saquon outperform contract incentives?
The stalemate between Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants ended Tuesday as the franchise-tagged running back signed a one-year deal to remain a Giant.
Barkley's contract includes $909,000 worth of incentives that give him a chance to top the $10.1 million he would've earned playing under the franchise tag.
To be precise, Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley had $909,000 worth of incentives added to his deal for three categories:
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 25, 2023
🏈1350 rushing yards plus a playoff berth
🏈65 receptions
🏈11 touchdowns
But do oddsmakers like his chances of earning extra cash?
Here's a look at Barkley's season props for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
| Market | Total (Over odds) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1100.5 (-110) | 52.4% |
| Rushing TDs | 7.5 (-115) | 53.5% |
(Odds via theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook)
Barkley has only played 16 games twice in his five-year career - in his rookie campaign and last season. He rushed for over 1,300 yards in each of those efforts and scored 15 and 10 touchdowns, respectively.
As for the receptions, Barkley reeled in 91 balls in his rookie season but hasn't come close to that number since. His 57-catch total from last year (under new head coach Brian Daboll) is the second-highest of his career. That isn't too far from the 65 he needs to cash an incentive.
If he can replicate last season's work on the ground and slightly increase his passing game production - he was held without a receiving touchdown in 2023 - Barkley has a good shot at earning two of the three bonuses.
However, Barkley recording over 1,349.5 rushing yards - a career high - AND the Giants securing a playoff berth for the second straight year seems to be the hardest incentive to achieve. And oddsmakers agree.
| Market | Odds | Boosted Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Barkley To Record Over 1349.5 Rushing Yards & NY Giants To Make The Playoffs |
+700 | +900 | 10% |
(Odds via theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook)
The Giants' odds to make the playoffs sit at +170 (37% implied probability), which makes Barkley's odds of rushing for over 1,349.5 yards roughly +270 (27% implied probability) without accounting for correlation.
Daboll will probably rely heavily on Barkley again in 2023. However, it'd be hard to imagine a scenario where Barkley earns any of these incentives without playing a full season. Health concerns are a large part of the reason the Giants didn't want to sign Barkley to a long-term deal - and why his new one-year contract includes these performance incentives.