NFL preseason Thursday best bets: C.J. Stroud to make his debut
Week one of the preseason kicks off with two games Thursday night.
Some teams are more transparent about preseason playing time than others. For the teams that aren't, the coach's and players' preseason history is often a good indicator.
It's important to remember games that are treated as player auditions where the final score is meaningless are hard to truly evaluate, and thus bet on. But we broke down Thursday's slate anyway.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (+3.5), O/U 37
The Texans' preseason opener will be full of debuts. After a disastrous 3-13-1 season that led to the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft, Houston has a load of young talent it hopes is the future of the team. The best way to develop that young talent is through reps, and those reps start in the preseason.
That's why rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is starting for the Texans on Thursday.
Stroud is +900 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, which is third best among quarterbacks, trailing No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson.
The Texans expect the Ohio State product to be the future of the franchise, but it'll take some time. Houston's roster is not ready to compete for a playoff spot this season. Teams with little expectation entering the season are more likely to play their starters because there's less risk. It's also Demeco Ryans' debut as head coach.
Any experience against NFL competition is good experience, which is why Stroud and most of the Texans' starters will start on Thursday. Davis Mills, who was Houston's starting quarterback last year and is now the backup, will get a ton of reps, too.
Wide receiver John Metchie III is also making his debut. He was drafted in the second round in 2022 but missed his entire rookie season battling leukemia.
The Patriots, on the other hand, expect to compete for a playoff spot in the best division in football.
Mac Jones and the rest of the Patriots' starters are reportedly not expected to play. Bailey Zappe will start at quarterback.
He started multiple games last season after Jones was benched. The Patriots have a deep quarterback room with Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham, who has reportedly been impressive in training camp.
The Texans opened as 1.5-point favorites and have jumped to 3.5-point favorites, an indication most of the money is coming in on Houston. I don't have an official pick, but I'd lean toward laying the points with Houston's young weapons.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-4.5), O/U 35
Pete Carroll has kept his preseason plans close to his chest, but it's reasonable to expect most of the starters to play a couple of drives before they are pulled for backups. Geno Smith started in all three preseason games last year and threw 39 total passes, although he was a bigger question mark in Seattle a year ago.
Seattle's backup Drew Lock played well in two preseason games last year and will surely get a plethora of reps.
Carroll has shown he values the preseason more than many other coaches do. He's covered the spread in 57% of his preseason games as head coach, the third-best percentage against the spread among active coaches.
While preseason is a crapshoot and some of that could very well be luck, it's telling that the Seahawks have been successful throughout Carroll's tenure.
The Vikings have also not announced official preseason plans. However, their blueprint from last year can help us decipher what they'll do. Kirk Cousins did not play in last year's preseason, so don't expect him to play this season, either.
Nick Mullens will likely start at quarterback with rookie Jaren Hall coming in to relieve him. Mullens has had success the last few seasons, jumping from borderline starter to high-end backup. He's thrown for over 5,000 yards in his career, more than most quarterbacks who play substantial minutes in the preseason.
Minnesota has one rookie receiver everyone should have their eyes on in Jordan Addison, the 23rd pick out of Pittsburgh. The last time the Vikings spent a first-round pick on a wide receiver was Justin Jefferson, and we all know how that turned out.
Another position group to keep an eye on is the running backs. With the departure of Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison assumes the starting role. It's not clear if he'll play much, or at all, against Seattle. Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu, and rookie DeWayne McBride will have big roles.
Chandler played well last preseason, totaling 113 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.
The Vikings, despite entering as underdogs, may have the edge with a talented backup quarterback and young skill players likely to get meaningful reps. But instead of taking a side on the spread, I expect both offenses to shine and will play the over.
Pick: Over 35
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.