Week 1 survivor picks: Journey to be the last one standing begins

Getting knocked out early in a survivor contest sucks. There's so much fun in plotting who to take all week long before sweating out your choice every Sunday.

The problem is there's no such thing as a foolproof pick in the NFL. You have to plan accordingly to make it to the end.

The world's largest survivor contest has been held at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas since 2020. There's been a multi-way tie each year despite thousands of entrants. You want to be in that position at the end of the season, both for the winnings and so you can keep playing.

Every week until we get knocked out, we'll map two paths to make it to the end of the season undefeated. As long as our entries are still standing, we'll use the moneylines for our picks to show the odds of making it the distance traveled along the path. Once we're out, though, we're out.

While we could provide a series of theoretical rules to follow - like "never take a road team" - a club's likelihood of winning each game is reflected in its moneyline. We can easily translate that into an implied win probability, which is listed in descending order in the chart below.

Week 1 moneylines

Survivor Path A

The Ravens are the obvious pick. You'll likely advance. However, you can use Baltimore versus the Colts in Week 3, at Arizona in Week 8, and against the Rams in Week 13. The only good opportunity to pick the Commanders is Sunday.

You need to use 18 teams to get to the end of a survivor contest. Of the clubs on the edge of the top 18, only the Giants, Seahawks, Browns, and Bears face the Cardinals - the NFL's worst team - at home. That means you'll need to find a spot later in the season to use another mediocre squad against a team far more dangerous than Arizona. Plus, Josh Dobbs has only been with the Cardinals for a week.

Pick: Commanders

Survivor Path B

We're looking to save Baltimore, and it's hard to trust the Vikings, Jaguars, or Seahawks to win outright in Week 1 despite being touchdown-sized favorites. So, let's take a shot with something theoretically riskier.

As a general rule, choosing a team to cover a short spread is a better option than picking a bigger favorite where you like the underdog plus the points. It's too hard to thread that needle.

The Falcons have a short spread against the Panthers in Week 1. While they play the Cardinals this season, Kyler Murray could return for that game in mid-November. Atlanta also hosts the Texans, who are comparable to the Panthers, in mid-October. However, you'd rather take the Falcons during Bryce Young's debut instead of against C.J. Stroud with a few games under his belt.

Pick: Falcons

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.