NFL Week 1 best bets: 8 plays for a loaded Sunday slate

Know what you're good at - it's as good of a piece of advice for betting as there is.

Last year, we tested the hypothesis that I'm way better at spreads, sniffing out underdog moneylines and finding valuable teasers instead of trying to bet over/under point totals. This year, we've gladly passed on totals on, trimming the best bets down to elements which went 27-21-4 (56.3%) against the spread, broke even on underdog moneylines, and netted +2.6 units on 6-point teasers.

Week 1 is a different beast, as the lines have been up for months instead of days, and the true definition of value is almost impossible to capture. We've also discussed each team in every which way, so it's our first chance to back those offseason opinions in a game.

Best bets ATS

Falcons -3.5

David (not Derek) Carr was the last quarterback to be drafted first overall and cover on the road in Week 1. It's been a while.

This game doesn't set up well for Bryce Young and the Panthers, with a receiving corps that was hard to get excited about in the first place and has questionable injury designations all over it.

The Falcons have a plan - run the ball aggressively and create easy throws for Desmond Ridder to his young weapons. Atlanta put up 400+ yards and scored 37 points in this game last year with leading rusher Caleb Huntley and leading wide receiver Damiere Byrd. The team also gave up 400 yards defensively but has made strides to improve that side of the ball.

Titans +3

I wish this situation happened more often - where a team you feel is undervalued faces an opponent that you feel is overrated in Week 1, and we're getting a field goal for our side.

Tennessee's core, with one of the best coaches in the NFL, went 27-13 from the start of 2021 until the middle of last season, when the team was forced into playing without a bona fide quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins now provides a reliable target that Ryan Tannehill hasn't had since those good times in Nashville.

I don't expect the Saints to be able to run the ball against a defensive line with Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry bookending Teair Tart. Mike Vrabel will find the edges to keep it close enough, and with Dennis Allen on the other side, the spread doesn't matter at all.

Buccaneers +5

No one had any chill.

With the Vikings opening at -6.5 in the spring, I waited patiently for it to tick up to +7. But +6.5 and +6 were good enough for like-minded, impatient bettors with market influence. It's up to you whether you want to take the worst of the number, but this is the healthiest the Buccaneers' veteran defense will be all season. A group featuring Vita Vea should stuff the Minnesota run, neutralizing the effectiveness of Kirk Cousins' play-action passing.

Steelers +2.5

Nick Bosa returns, but that doesn't make the 49ers invincible, and Brock Purdy faces the biggest challenge of his career outside of the NFC Championship, where he didn't make it past the first quarter. Following an offseason that was more about rehabilitation than development, expect San Francisco's offense to be out of sync - especially if George Kittle can't go - while Kenny Pickett and the Steelers are ready. Pittsburgh hasn't lost an opener to a team other than Tom Brady's Patriots since 2013.

Packers +1

This is another line that's gotten away from peak throughout the summer, when it was Packers +3. But the Bears are still getting far more credit than I ever thought possible after not winning any of the games on Justin Fields' highlight tape. Even with toss-up odds, I like the Packers to win and explain why I'm high on Green Bay ad nauseam in the lead-up to the season.

Seahawks -5.5

We've got one rule this season - if either Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, or Aaron Donald are ruled out of a game, and the line doesn't move in a meaningful way off of projection, we're fading the Rams.

The Seahawks made a point to fix their sieve-like run defense this offseason, and Cam Akers wasn't scaring anybody in the first place. What's left for Stafford without Kupp in Seattle? Not much. The Hawks' offense should be able to make up this number, with the Rams unlikely to crack 20 points on the road.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Colts (+180)

One theme we'll continue to have this year is betting on uncertainty. High variance is the name of the game in betting underdog moneylines, and who knows what to expect from the Colts' offense? Why would they show anything they plan to do with Anthony Richardson's athletic ability in the preseason?

Meanwhile, the least-discussed absence in Week 1 is Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson. An already shaky offensive line gets worse. So would a low-scoring game, where a big play or two from Richardson via his legs is the difference, be all that surprising?

Best 6-point teaser

Steelers +8.5 / Jets +8.5

Let's not overcomplicate things. We like the Steelers a lot, so doubling down with Pittsburgh is fine this week, and we can capture the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7, setting us up to do the same with Monday Night's AFC East showdown. Regardless of how you feel about Aaron Rodgers, he's in New York to make sure the offense is good enough that big games from the defense don't go to waste. The Jets have given Josh Allen fits, so a road win for Buffalo by double digits seems unlikely.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.