Week 2 survivor picks: Looking to the top of the NFC

It wasn't quite the bloodbath we've seen in Week 1s of years past, but the Buccaneers, Rams and Raiders did most of the damage to survivor entries, likely resulting in around 20% of contestants in your pool being one and done.

Lucky for us, both of our selections - the Commanders and Falcons - managed to win. Even if it was a sweat well into the second half.

Every week until we get knocked out, we're mapping two paths to make it to the end of the season undefeated. As long as our entries are still standing, we'll use the moneylines for our picks to show the odds of making it the distance travelled along the path. Once we're out, though, we're out.

While we could provide a series of theoretical rules to follow - like "never take a road team" - a club's likelihood of winning each game is reflected in its moneyline. We can easily translate that into an implied win probability, which is listed in descending order in the chart below.

Week 2 moneylines

Survivor Path A

Surviving with the Commanders and Falcons - two teams we don't necessarily rate in the league's top 16 - means that we did a nice job of saving the best clubs for later. However, in survivor contests, you can fall too deeply in love with the idea of saving teams. It's about taking on the right amount of risk.

There are other times to use the Eagles. After all, they're favored in just about every game they play. However, the best options are Week 4 (vs. WSH), and then not until home games late in the season in Week 16 (vs. NYG) and Week 17 (vs. AZ). There are other options for Week 4, and if we make it to Week 16, I plan to have the Chiefs saved for then. To me, it's now or in Week 17 for Philly. Taking Washington last week means we have an extra team that will still be in the thick of it in the season's penultimate week, giving us options come late December.

The Eagles might not be as popular a pick this week as you would expect them to be because the game is on Thursday. They also play a Vikings team that many in your pool of competitors might still think is dangerous. Let others save the Eagles, putting themselves at risk this week. By the time Sunday rolls around, we'll already be thinking about who looks trustworthy in Week 3.

Pick: Eagles

Survivor Path B

Unlike Las Vegas' big survivor contest, your pool probably doesn't isolate Thanksgiving as its own individual week. So there's less pressure to save the Cowboys for their traditional Turkey Day contest, where they should be the favorite to top the Commanders by over a touchdown.

In that case, the next best time to use the Cowboys is in Week 10 when they host the Giants, whom they just beat 40-0. Instead, the plan will be to use the Bengals that week, as they host the Texans and should be more in form than they are now.

I like Cincinnati then, more than I trust anyone else this week. So let's hope - on a short week with travel - that the Jets have a hard time getting Zach Wilson ready for the Cowboys' furious pass rush in a game with the highest point spread of the week.

Pick: Cowboys

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.