NFL Week 2 best bets: Averse to overreaction or quick to adjust?
We tried to focus on our strengths for Week 1. The idea is that bets against the spread should lead the way in this space, and it worked. We passed totals on to theScore's betting writer, Sam Oshtry, and he cashed two of three over/under plays while we went 4-2 against the spread here. Unfortunately, the Steelers cost us our top teaser, and the Colts couldn't hang on to a fourth-quarter lead for our moneyline upset.
Best bets ATS
We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.
| TEAM | SPREAD |
|---|---|
| Titans | +3 |
| Raiders | +9 |
| Ravens | +3.5 |
| Commanders | +3.5 |
| Cardinals | +4.5 |
However, there are more plays worth making this week.
Texans -1
An NFL debut in Baltimore was bound to be uncomfortable for C.J. Stroud, but things should get easier at home against a Colts defense that benefited from facing the Jaguars without offensive tackle Cam Robinson and scored on a fluke play.
On the other side of the ball, DeMeco Ryans gets to scheme against a rookie quarterback instead of the uncertainty of what to expect from Lamar Jackson and his new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken. The Texans' defense allowed just 265 yards to Baltimore and already has a successful plan for dealing with a mobile quarterback - which is the Colts' lone running option.
Rams +7.5
Everyone talks about overreactions to Week 1 results, but what about being nimble and not locked into preconceived notions? Matthew Stafford sure looked like his old self in Seattle. If he's healthy enough to be that top-10 quarterback, then the Rams can't be rated alongside teams like the Panthers, Buccaneers and Commanders - and therefore they can't be over a touchdown to their division rival at home unless the 49ers are definitively the best team in the NFL, which might be an overreaction itself.
Jets +8.5
The Jets didn't make the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay because the price on the moneyline makes sense based on how likely the Cowboys are to win outright. Zach Wilson's presence has thrown the Jets' team rating into the bottom quarter of the league. Along with this game's low total, that means a closer game is more likely than the spread suggests. Look for the Jets' defense to slow the Cowboys while their run game opens things up for more throws to Garrett Wilson, who caught all five passes thrown his way on Monday night.
Patriots +3
The headlines from Dolphins-Chargers lauded Miami's speed - as if we weren't fully aware of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Patriots didn't have to face Tua Tagovailoa in the win over Miami last year, but even in 2022's Week 1 loss, the New England defense allowed just 242 net passing yards, and they might be better this season.
The concerning thing for the Dolphins is a run defense that allowed 233 yards on 40 carries in Los Angeles. That's the kind of offensive strategy that the Patriots would be more than happy to deploy with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, and they couldn't try it against the Eagles' defensive line while facing a sizable deficit early.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Cardinals +175
The Cardinals held the Commanders to 3.6 yards per play in Washington last week and got to the quarterback for five sacks. Since their head coach was the defensive coordinator of the NFC champion Eagles last season, maybe he knows a thing or two about creating havoc, even with what are perceived to be lesser players. What if the seven sacks the Giants allowed last week weren't just a matter of Dallas being awesome?
The Cardinals signed Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback a week before the season, and the market reacted by betting the under on their win total, even though Arizona's brass thinks Dobbs gives them a better chance to win. Another week of practice gets him more comfortable with the plays that will work, and the Cards can scheme open explosive athletes Rondale Moore and Marquise Brown.
The Giants had a great run to the divisional round of the playoffs last year, but they were regularly rated as a below-average team. What if Sunday night was somewhat indicative of a club that finished the regular season 2-5-1 and then got crushed by the Eagles?
Best 6-point teaser
Bears +8.5 / Steelers +8.5 (-120)
It's a matter of accounting, but spoiler: The Steelers will show up as our best bet for Monday, so we've left them off our list above. At +8.5, though, they're too good to pass up to close a two-team 6-pointer.
One traditionally attractive look for a teaser leg occurs when a team moves from +3 to +2.5. The spread coming off that key number hints that the betting market thinks highly of the Bears' chances at keeping it close. That move is a big deal against the spread, but the line change on 6-point teasers - going from +9 to +8.5 - isn't nearly as significant since a winning margin of 9 is much more rare.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.