NFL Week 4 player props: Looking for room to run

There will be winning weeks and losing weeks in any betting format - that's just statistical variance. One way to know you've made a good bet is when it's no longer offered. That's the case with Bijan Robinson's reception total, which has evolved from 2.5 to 3.5 to 3.5 with a not-so-valuable, heavily juiced price on the over. Such is life in betting - if it's good, it won't last.

Jerome Ford: Over 53.5 rushing yards

We swung and missed with Ford last week as he struggled to get going against the Titans, but we won't abandon a decent premise after one game. This matchup might suit him better as Nick Chubb ran for more than five yards per carry in two games against the Ravens' scheme last season. Ford needs a fraction of that Sunday.

Joe Mixon: Under 52.5 rushing yards

Tennessee held the Saints, Chargers, and Browns runners to a league-low 2.6 yards per carry. And we know that even with a sore calf, Joe Burrow isn't shy to take the offense on his shoulders after 49 throws Monday. Expect the same strategy from the Bengals but with less success running the ball into the strength of the Titans' defense.

Courtland Sutton: Over 55.4 receiving yards

With a new head coach, there's always some wonder about who will fill the roles the veteran boss used for previous success. Through three brutal games for the Broncos, Sean Payton appears to want Sutton to emulate Michael Thomas from the coach's New Orleans days. Sutton's targets, catches, and yardage has crept up through three contests.

Matthew Stafford: Over 261.5 passing yards

It's hard to know what Stafford's yardage total should be since he spent the latter half of last season going under totals lower than this - while injured and without many good targets. However, Stafford's cashed the over in all three games this season at full health.

De'Von Achane: Over 36.5 rushing yards

The Dolphins know what they have in Achane, and so does everyone else now. Raheem Mostert isn't built for a heavy workload, and the Bills have allowed a league-high 5.9 yards per carry this campaign. The idea for making this number so low might be that Achane won't get 18 carries in a blowout, but he might clear this number with around half of that.

C.J. Stroud: Under 235.5 passing yards

We won by going over with Stroud last week, but we got help from a pair of deep connections to Tank Dell. That's somewhat reliable against the Jaguars' pass defense, but it's hard to imagine Stroud gets the requisite time to go long behind a banged-up offensive line against the Steelers.

Rachaad White: Under 51.5 rushing yards

White might be in the doghouse after Monday night's performance, in which he recorded just 38 yards on 14 carries and had a critical fumble. Maybe he'll hit the hole the way the Bucs want him to. But if Tampa wants a more straightforward runner, Sean Tucker might get more carries against a Saints defense that hasn't given up much on the ground this season.

Jalen Hurts: Under 43.5 rushing yards

Hurts isn't finding room when keeping the ball, with the quarterback posting 37, 35, and 28 rushing yards in each game. The Commanders did a solid job dissuading Hurts from running last season. He ran just 15 times for 48 yards in two combined contests.

Joshua Kelley: Under 52.5 rushing yards

Kelley's had the Chargers' backfield to himself for two weeks, and he's done next to nothing with it, with 52 yards on 24 carries. The Raiders' run defense hasn't been terrible. It'll likely result from high volume if Kelley climbs over this number - the least efficient Chargers' offensive game plan imaginable.

Brock Purdy: Under 28.5 pass attempts

The 14-point spread is too high to get involved with in this matchup - given the backdoor cover potential - but it does suggest a blowout for the 49ers. Lost in the Cardinals' upset of the Cowboys was that Dallas got everything they could have wanted on the ground against Arizona. The Cardinals' run defense will get a tougher test in San Francisco. Purdy should be content on handing the ball to Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell, particularly late, in what should be a comfortable win.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.