Week 1 round-robin underdog parlay: Lions among 5 primed for early upset

Let's make each other a promise. This will be our guilty pleasure this season. Our one parlay each week.

We'll reserve one unit of our bankroll for an NFL betting lottery ticket. Meanwhile, we'll play every other bet as a single play as we try to win 55% of those in an effort to be profitable long term.

There are NFL upsets every week. Here, we'll take five 'dogs and see if we can win three. If there are surprises throughout the league one week, we could run into four or five moneyline upsets and have our parlay legs connect for a bankroll-juicing windfall.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - whom we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Lions (+200) vs. Chiefs

Just because we no longer have the best price on a bet doesn't always mean the value is gone. This was as long as +225 last week before Travis Kelce's knee injury. But a non-conference game for the Chiefs - who have bigger goals than going 1-0 - isn't all that important.

What does Kansas City's offense look like without Kelce? We don't really know as he's missed just one meaningful game since Patrick Mahomes took over.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense will be without their most important piece, Chris Jones. They're 2-4 in meaningful games without Jones dating back to 2019, with their wins coming against the Joe Flacco-led Broncos and the Commanders with Taylor Heinicke. Kansas City surrendered an average of 31.75 points in those four losses.

The Lions' offense is more in line with the teams that have piled up points on the Jones-less Chiefs. Without Kelce, Kansas City is unlikely to keep up. It's possible not enough of an adjustment has been made to the odds, as this game has become the type of high-variance result that we like in this space.

Buccaneers (+210) vs. Vikings

We need one more decent-sized pup to help the payout, and the veteran-laden Buccaneers played their best game in Week 1 of last season in shutting down the Cowboys. Todd Bowles isn't my favorite head coach, but he's had more than enough time to come up with something to contain Justin Jefferson and pressure Kirk Cousins. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield should be able to score enough to keep this close. At 2-to-1 odds, we'll take our chances that this is the touchdown underdog to come through against the vulnerable Vikings.

Steelers (+120) vs. 49ers

I've had this circled since it was lined Steelers +3 this summer. However, I don't think we'll need the points, which is good since this line has come down since. Nothing Brock Purdy saw in his sojourn to semi-stardom last year looked anything like the Steelers' defense in Pittsburgh. And like Jones, the hole left by Nick Bosa's holdout will be felt. As with the Lions, a win here is a bigger deal for the Steelers than for their opponent.

Titans (+160) vs. Saints

Mike Vrabel's getting points against Dennis Allen.

It's safe to say we'll get deeper into this game as a best bet later in the week, but a healthy Titans team is being underrated in the market. Meanwhile, there's a chance the Saints are being overrated because they're the best of a rough group in the NFC South.

Raiders (+170) vs. Broncos

Speaking of head coaches, let's dare Sean Payton to matter. The Raiders won both matchups versus the Broncos last year, although Payton has said he plans to fix Russell Wilson. But shouldn't Wilson, a veteran quarterback, have fixed himself at some point last season? If he's too far gone, the Raiders are well worth including in this collection since the line should be under a field goal.

How the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.