NFL Week 1 teasers: Look for key numbers and profitable trends
There's value in placing teasers on NFL Sundays. While a casual bettor may see a drastic shift in points and go crazy, remember: not all teasers are equal. Yes, there are dumb teasers, but there are also smart ways to tease that follow winning margin probabilities.
The goal of a teaser, if used effectively, is to alter the point spread by (usually) six points while gaining value on each leg of the teaser. A single leg of a six-point teaser (-120) is priced around -280, as opposed to an alternate spread shifted by six points that might be -300 or shorter.
With each leg at longer odds than the alternate spread, teasers provide value for bettors by capturing key winning margin numbers: three, six, and seven. It never makes sense to tease a game through zero because you're losing valuable win probability, given how rarely games are won by less than a field goal or end in a super-rare tie.
Let's use the Week 1 matchup between the 49ers and the 2.5-point underdog Steelers to illustrate the value of teasing a game:
| Alt. spread | Odds |
|---|---|
| Steelers +3.5 | -150 |
| Steelers +4.5 | -180 |
| Steelers +5.5 | -205 |
| Steelers +6.5 | -250 |
| Steelers +7.5 | -330 |
| Steelers +8.5 | -370 |
You can see the massive price jump when the Steelers go from +6.5 to +7.5, indicating a key number (7) was crossed. It's important to identify key numbers and cross them to get the best value on a teaser.
Teasing the Steelers to +8.5 gives you a price of -280 on this leg of the teaser, instead of a price of -370 on its own, which could be parlayed with another alternate spread at a much worse price than you'd get for a teaser.
To optimize Steelers +8.5, we need to find its mate to lock in a two-team teaser. If both legs hit, the ticket cashes. Here's our weekly teaser basket of the best options to tease based on key numbers.
Teaser Basket
| Team | Spread | Teaser Leg |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Browns | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Vikings | -6 | PK |
| Commanders | -7 | -1 |
| Packers | +1.5 | +7.5 |
| Jets | +2.5 | +8.5 |
There are two types of teaser legs to target, as the chart indicates: those that take a spread of around a touchdown and turn it into a just-win scenario, or those that turn a coin-flip game with a spread under a field goal into a cover-by-a-touchdown situation.
With the uncertainty Week 1 presents, it's wise to back home underdogs and fade road favorites, particularly in division matchups. The Jets perfectly fall into that spot as a divisional home underdog in Aaron Rodgers' N.Y. debut on Monday Night Football. The Browns are also a home underdog in a divisional game against the Bengals with Joe Burrow's status questionable.
Divisional home underdogs are 15-2 against the spread in Week 1 since 2012. The Steelers aren't playing a divisional opponent but they're home underdogs against the 49ers.
My teaser of the week is the Steelers +8.5 paired with the Commanders -1, who open the season at home against an atrocious Cardinals team. Meanwhile, the Browns and Jets are worthy teases, as well, following the divisional matchup trend.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.