NFL Week 2 teasers: Eagles and Patriots good tease candidates
Placing teasers in Week 1 takes bravery given the uncertainty of the opening week of the NFL season and potentially misplaced spreads. Many of our legs from the Week 1 teaser basket hit, but the challenge is pairing the right ones.
While the Commanders, Packers, Jets, and Browns covered, the Steelers and Vikings did not. In order to make -280 teaser legs valuable, you need to win at least 75% of the time. Our Commanders -1 and Steelers +8.5 play was a loser.
As we look to Week 2, remember that teasers provide value for bettors by capturing key winning margin numbers: three, six, and seven. It never makes sense to tease a game through zero because you're losing valuable win probability. Games are hardly won by less than a field goal or end in a super-rare tie.
Let's use the Patriots (+2.5) matchup against the Dolphins to show the value of teasing a game.
| Alt. Spread | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patriots +3.5 | -148 |
| Patriots +4.5 | -178 |
| Patriots +5.5 | -196 |
| Patriots +6.5 | -250 |
| Patriots +7.5 | -310 |
| Patriots +8.5 | -350 |
It's evident the dramatic price increases come after crossing the numbers six and seven, which are key numbers in NFL betting. A teaser leg of Patriots +8.5 at -280 offers far greater value than getting the Patriots at an alternate spread of +8.5 at a -350 price.
To cash the two-team, six-point teaser, we need to pair Patriots +8.5 with another teaser leg. Our "teaser basket" shows the most valuable teaser legs of the week based on key numbers.
Teaser basket
| Team | Spread | Teaser leg |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -7 | -1 |
| Falcons | +1.5 | +7.5 |
| Lions | -6 | PK |
| Colts | +2 | +8 |
| 49ers | -8 | -2 |
| Patriots | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Steelers | +2 | +8 |
This week features a ton of games with spreads hovering around a touchdown or under a field goal. Typically, those are the most valuable games to tease because they cross the key numbers.
The Eagles, 49ers, and Lions are expected to win by roughly a touchdown, while the Falcons, Colts, Patriots, and Steelers are projected to be in close games.
As we highlighted earlier, there's value in teasing the Patriots. After a disastrous first quarter to start the NFL season, New England rebounded by limiting the Eagles. Mac Jones and the Patriots' offense looked great as the game went on, coming back from a 16-point deficit to create a chance to win in the final seconds. The Dolphins offense looked phenomenal last week, but it'll be a different story against a Bill Belichick defense. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Patriots.
We backed the Steelers last week and they looked like they didn't belong on the same field as the 49ers. The Steelers are getting points at home over a Browns team receiving a ton of early-season hype. Although it's a good rebound spot, I'm staying away. Instead, let's look at Philadelphia.
The Eagles struggled in the opener despite escaping with a win. Now, they have a short turnaround when they play the Vikings at home on Thursday Night Football.
Last weekend, the Vikings lost outright to the Buccaneers and looked discombobulated in the process. Many predicted a regression in Minnesota after a myriad of miraculous one-score wins last season.
The Vikings struggle whenever they go to Philly. They've lost three of the last four contests there, including a dominant Eagles win in Week 2 last season.
The Eagles have a substantially better roster and are at home, so getting this game down to -1 and only needing an Eagles win for one teaser leg is a smart play. Pair Eagles -1 and Patriots +8.5 for a winning teaser.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.