Thursday Night Football best bets: Bears-Commanders a high-volatility matchup

How much can change in a year?

Almost a year ago - Week 6 of 2022 - the Commanders visited the Bears on a Thursday night game to end all Thursday nighters, a rollicking 12-7 Washington win at Soldier Field. Carson Wentz threw for a whole 99 yards in the win, and Justin Fields gave the Bears a chance to win late with a long rush - a surprise at the time. That started a stretch where Fields averaged 94.9 yards rushing the rest of the season after beginning the year by running for just 38.8 yards per game.

Will a rematch in Washington trigger the explosiveness that's been missing from Fields so far this season? Can the Commanders muster more than 12 points with their new thrill-a-minute quarterback, Sam Howell?

Bears @ Commanders (-6, 44.5)

Howell has been up and down this season. This is the roller coaster he gave North Carolina fans on a play-to-play basis during a college career that saw him go from potential first-round pick to fifth-round pick. The Commanders' team rating has fluctuated along with his play, with a high point versus the Broncos and a low point against the Bills that turned them into 9.5-point underdogs at the Eagles just four days ago.

The Bears were made the league's lowest-rated team after getting blown out by the Chiefs, only to appear functional offensively against the same Broncos that Washington recently dueled with until the final second. There are plenty of contenders for the worst team in the NFL, so this line is probably a bit long, as the Cardinals were +5.5 against Washington in Week 1, and I doubt the Giants will be getting this many points when they visit the Commanders.

With each quarterback capable of explosive plays and turnover binges in equal measure, both teams are highly volatile, so there's probably some value in the underdog moneyline. For our purposes here, we'll take the points in a game where we'd be more confident in the over if it weren't a short week - which often leads to scores like 12-7.

Pick: Bears (+6)

Justin Fields: Over 16.5 pass completions (-115)

Neither the Bears nor the Commanders have been good against the pass this season, allowing the 31st- and 24th-most yards per pass attempt, respectively. We'll target Fields' low completion total as something easier to overcome on Thursday since the Washington defense profiles more like the Packers and Broncos - teams he's gone over against - than it does the Chiefs or Buccaneers. If we're expecting a close game or - as the spread suggests - one in which the Bears are trailing, Fields should be called upon to throw more frequently. If they found some particular plays he was comfortable with when he went 28-for-35 on Sunday, there should be some easier completions to help boost this statistical category.

Sam Howell: Anytime touchdown (+390)

Howell's rushing yardage is an intriguing pick since he's had runs of 10-plus yards in four of his five career starts and comes off a game where he scampered for 40 yards. However, let's go for the gusto in the anytime touchdown market. You could say he's due - he scored in his first two NFL games but not since - or you can look at the 11 rushing touchdowns he scored in his last season as a Tar Heel. Either way, Howell knows where the goal line is when things break down in the red zone.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.