NFL Week 5 player props: Go time

We're almost a quarter of the way into the season, and we should feel a lot better about what we know about the NFL's teams than the player prop results have warranted. It's time to get on a run.

Kenny Pickett: Under 187.5 passing yards

Here's what's going against the Steelers' pass offense this week:

1. The Ravens' league-leading pass defense has allowed just 4.1 yards per pass attempt.
2. Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams return to Baltimore's secondary.
3. Pat Freiermuth and two offensive linemen are out for the Steelers.
4. Pickett's bone bruise suggests there's a chance he doesn't make it through all 60 minutes.
5. Matt Canada

Pickett's prescribed yardage total is low but might not be low enough.

Drew Ogletree: Anytime touchdown (+850)

We don't usually get super spicy in this space, but I want to bet Ogletree to do something, and oddsmakers aren't offering the little-known tight end in the receiving yardage markets.

Ogletree caught three of his four targets last week, including a touchdown, and looked like the prototypical big, fast Colts tight end. His snap share has crept up ahead of Mo Alie-Cox. Getting 44% of the snaps in Week 3 was the most of Ogletree's three career games. Even if you want to try it for less than your usual unit, let's see if we're on the ground floor of an up-and-coming player.

Tua Tagovailoa: Under 33.5 pass attempts

Hardly a fade of Tagovailoa, this is the opposite. The Giants are a terrible tackling outfit, so whether it's the Dolphins' receivers or their pair of speedy tailbacks, there should be many explosive plays on the way to Miami building a big lead. If it only takes a few passes for the Dolphins to get down the field, and they only need to bleed the clock late, Tagovailoa won't need to throw. He's gone under this number in three of Miami's four blowout wins under Mike McDaniel.

Desmond Ridder: Over 179.5 passing yards

Want to hear something messed up? Ridder's 6-2 to the over on his passing yards for his career.

The common assumption is Ridder's on thin ice, with Taylor Heinicke looming to replace him if he doesn't play well this week. That narrative seems to have dropped his yardage total from 185.5 in the last three weeks (all overs).

Either the Falcons will play better back at home, or it'll be a highly competitive or chasing type of game script. Either way, Ridder can get over this low bar against a Texans pass defense whose metrics are somewhat artificially inflated by their previous opponents.

Mac Jones: Under 208.5 passing yards

Speaking of quarterbacks who might get a quick hook - there's a 30-yard difference between Jones and Ridder, and the Patriots are facing a defense allowing the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt. New England will win this game by getting short fields off Saints' turnovers, special teams play, and a massive coaching mismatch. Not because Jones lights it up.

Joe Burrow: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

I can't promise that Burrow will look healthy, mobile, and explosive, but the Cardinals' pass defense made Daniel Jones look awesome. I can't promise that Burrow won't succeed with intermediate throws either since only three teams have allowed more yards per pass - the Cards are tied with the Commanders in that category. The Bengals score more than they have all year, and we take advantage of an evenly-priced touchdown number for Burrow.

Jalen Hurts: Under 45.5 rushing yards

We made this bet in Week 3 and Week 4 and were evidently a couple of weeks too slow. Hurts hasn't exceeded his rushing yards total, yet the number hasn't dropped. Now Philly faces the Rams, who just saw a version of this offense last week going against former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen's Colts. Richardson's averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season, while Hurts is gaining just 3.3 YPC.

Travis Kelce: Under 77.5 receiving yards

Blame Taylor Swift. Blame the lingering effects of Kelce's knee injury. Blame the other Chiefs receivers. Whichever way you want to attribute it, Kelce's not gone over this number in 2023.

The Vikings will give up receptions to tight ends - six to Dallas Goedert, six to Gerald Everett - but they've allowed the fewest yards to them this campaign at just 20.5 per game. Brian Flores should dial back his high blitz percentage for fear of Patrick Mahomes, so even the hot routes shouldn't be there for Kelce.

Breece Hall: Over 17.5 receiving yards

With the Dalvin Cook experience an epic failure and Hall looking healthy enough post-ACL recovery, the Jets are taking the restrictor plate off. If we can expect Hall to be on the field for more than 50% of the snaps for the first time this season, he'll be the one available for Zach Wilson's check-downs against a Broncos defense that's given up the second-most yardage to opposing running backs.

Brock Purdy: Longest pass attempt under 37.5

It's obviously not a playoff game, but a chunk of win probability for the NFC's top seed is on the line Sunday night. That means we can expect the 49ers to go deep into the playbook. However, the Cowboys have prepared for Kyle Shanahan's good plays in their last two playoff games. Dan Quinn's unit didn't give up a pass longer than 37 yards in either of those contests. Without Trevon Diggs, there's less risk/reward to Dallas' defense, so expect everything to stay in front of them.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.