MNF best bets: Hazy memories ahead of Packers' trip to Las Vegas

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you.

The Monday Night Football matchup shapes up a lot like a night in Las Vegas. Like the occasional evening in Sin City, the betting market seems to have a hazy recollection of the Week 3 matchup where interest in backing the Raiders was high against one of the biggest brands in the NFL.

Packers @ Raiders (-2, 45.5)

Two weeks ago, the Steelers opened as short favorites, but the betting market piled in on the Raiders, flipping them to be the favorite by just shy of a field goal. That seemed like a good idea right up until the Las Vegas defense made the woeful Pittsburgh offense look far more functional than they have in any other game, despite the Steelers having played a high-intensity battle with Cleveland just six nights earlier.

Here we go again. Over a week ago, the Packers opened as a short favorite, and yet again, interest in the Raiders made Las Vegas the favorite. Unlike Pittsburgh, Green Bay has all kinds of rest and motivation from failing miserably in a prime-time divisional game at home.

Can the Raiders take advantage of a shaky Packers' offensive line? Last I looked, the Steelers aren't boasting a reinforced Kenny Pickett fence. Assuming their questionable tags are more of a formality, Aaron Jones should be far more involved. And look for shots deep to Christian Watson, as the Packers' offense looks a lot more like it did against the Bears in Week 1 than it has against the more aggressive fronts of the Saints and Lions.

Pick: Packers (+2.5)

Christian Watson: Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)

We saved some face two Thursdays ago by recognizing that Watson was mispriced (+225) in the anytime touchdown market as the No. 1 receiver for Jordan Love - who's not been shy to look at wide receivers in the red zone - when Watson scored on a play designed for him near the goal line.

Watson only played 26 snaps in that game. Assuming he's good to go and healthy enough for close to a full workload, he should at least see 48 snaps - his average in the latter half of last season. In those final eight games, Watson had at least six targets and 46 yards in every contest except one. In his final five appearances, Watson's receiving totals were between 45.5 and 55.5. While his touchdown odds have depressed, his injury issues give us a couple of yards of leeway that we wouldn't usually get, making the over worth a look.

Jakobi Meyers: Anytime touchdown (+175)

The Raiders have been bet despite Davante Adams' questionable injury status - which is significant enough that oddsmakers aren't offering his props as of Monday morning. Even if he plays, the Packers are familiar with his work and should shift coverage his way.

The top three target-getters on the Raiders have 25+, while the next closest has seven. Maybe Las Vegas rediscovers Hunter Renfrow or the tight end position as a whole, but Jakobi Meyers is available at decent odds for the Raiders' second-most targeted player.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.