NFL Week 6 best bets: Staying hot as the weather cools

A 7-3 week against the spread and a rare upset winner made up for the disappointment of the Broncos falling short in their last chance at being relevant the rest of the way and the Patriots' complete horror show against the Saints. As we get into Week 6, we've already used a short memory to get past the latter.

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Bengals -2.5 (-115)

The wild swings in the Bengals' rating continue. Last week, we recognized just how low of a price Cincinnati was at -3 in Arizona. Monitoring the Bengals' valuation has been tricky since their opponent - good, bad, home, road - always seems to be one where it makes some sense to make the Bengals a field goal favorite. In this case, the Bengals are being rated slightly above average, not quite back to their Super Bowl-candidate selves of the offseason. But should they be?

If what hindered the Bengals early in the season was Joe Burrow's calf - causing offensive inefficiency and unnecessary strain on the defense - getting closer to 100% should make that go away. He was off the injury report going into last week, and he passed the eye test, often showing the most mobility all season. That version of Burrow means a higher-end rating for the Bengals and a point spread over a field goal, making them a valuable bet lower than -3.5.

Panthers +13.5

We'll be patient and hope a +14 shows up between the time you read this and kickoff. If it doesn't, that's fine since the Panthers should keep this closer than two touchdowns.

The Dolphins' run game gets less explosive without De'Von Achane, so exploiting a shaky Panthers run defense won't be as damaging to Carolina. Every Phins handoff is a blessing since it shortens the game. Miami's offense disguises its 25th-ranked defensive DVOA, and the Panthers have shown that they'll play until the gun in louder road environments - Detroit and Seattle.

Frank Reich claims the game plan and calls will be simplified for Bryce Young, which might be enough for one extra extended drive and maybe an extra touchdown, keeping this close enough to cover a number that previous point spreads suggest should be a couple of points lower.

Vikings -2.5 (-115)

"Blow it up in Minnesota!"

We've heard a lot of that this week, haven't we? Kirk Cousins might as well shop for suburban New York rentals.

We can't be sure of Justin Jefferson's value to the point spread, but based on last week's closing lines, the Vikings might have been as high as 6-point favorites had the Bears not used a handful of big passing plays to beat the Commanders.

We know the difference between +6 and +2.5 is worth about 15% of win probability. With all of Cousins' other targets healthy against a still quite bad Bears defense, is Jefferson's absence worth a full 15%? Crossing over the key number of -3 is a bridge too far - especially if the expected windy weather makes it less likely that either team will strike a long touchdown in the passing game.

Texans +1.5

Even after a close loss in Atlanta, the Texans did nothing to dissuade anyone from thinking that C.J. Stroud and Co. are on the come up. With Demeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, Houston might already have the coaching advantage over the Saints. The rookie quarterback doesn't have the same turnover proclivity that Mac Jones, Bryce Young, and Ryan Tannehill have been guilty of in New Orleans' wins. If Jordan Love can lead a comeback on the Saints' defense, Stroud can get a lead and stay ahead of the Saints, who aren't likely to have back-to-back high-level performances on the road.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Colts (+170) over Jaguars

We focused on the Colts' offense in the round-robin moneyline parlay, but Indy's defense has impressed this season. Middle of the road in DVOA, Indianapolis held the Titans' duo of Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears to 89 rushing yards last week. The Jaguars beat the Bills thanks to Travis Etienne's big day in London town, but Kwity Paye is expected to rejoin Samson Ebukam and DeForest Buckner in pressuring Trevor Lawrence - who's turned the ball over as frequently as he's found teammates in the end zone.

Best 6-point teaser

Commanders +8.5 / Chargers +8.5

In the season opener, the Falcons won big over Bryce Young in his debut. In the previous two seasons, Atlanta won one game by more than 8.5 points that wasn't a fake Week 18 game. Oddly enough, it was last season against the 49ers. With an alternative line of +8.5 costing well over -300, using a teaser leg of -280 is a decent deal.

Speaking of variance, a high total and the style of play of both the Cowboys and Chargers would make you think that a blowout either way is possible, but have you seen these teams? Every evenly-matched game they find themselves in seemingly has to come down to a jaw-dropping, hair-raising conclusion.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.