NFL Week 8 best bets: What to do with a full mid-season slate?

A Thursday night sweep of our three plays kicked off Week 8. The ball keeps bouncing our way after a lucrative Week 7 with our moneyline underdogs (4-1 SU/ATS) and three wins in four games against the spread to improve to 19-11-2 (63.3%) in this space.

With no teams resting this week, there's plenty to choose from to keep the heat as the weather turns during the last weekend of October.

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Dolphins -9.5

Maybe it's as simple as putting some offensive line pieces back in place and giving Demario Douglas and Jalen Reagor more snaps, but the Patriots upset over the Bills is more about Buffalo's vulnerability to well-coached teams.

New England's defense is 26th in sack percentage without Matthew Judon, so I'm not worried about Tua Tagovailoa feeling the type of pass-rush pressure that's the only thing capable of disturbing the Dolphins' offense. Wednesday's practice report consisting of names like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert shouldn't be a big deal, so let's grab Miami before it goes to -10, as Mac Jones won't be able to keep up.

Titans +3 (-120)

The version of the Titans with Will Levis starting has to be unfathomably bad for this line to favor the Falcons by a field goal with moderate juice on the home underdog. Coming off a bye, and with Teair Tart back to lockdown the middle of Tennessee's run defense, I'll be on Mike Vrabel to have a conservative, functional plan on offense and a defense that'll give Desmond Ridder even more than his usual set of issues.

Jets -2.5 (-120)

MetLife Stadium hasn't provided much home-field advantage to the Giants at the best of times. Now, they take on their co-habitants as the nominal home team.

The Jets managed to survive the Eagles without their top two corners, so even if Sauce Gardner and/or D.J. Reed suffer a setback after logging full practices, they should be fine against Tyrod Taylor.

The edge comes from Breece Hall's ability to work a Giants' run defense, allowing 5.0 yards per carry. That should set up Zach Wilson to be effective with limited responsibility.

Eagles -7

The first matchup with the Commanders went to overtime, so you can see how there would be some interest in Washington getting a touchdown here. But a closer look reminds us that the Commanders had just 4.9 yards per play in the contest. They followed that game with just 84 yards in the first half of a home loss to the Bears and then 3.9 and 4.1 YPP against the Falcons and Giants. Why would we expect above-average production, given Sam Howell's been sacked an impossible-to-believe 40 times this season?

If it weren't for Ridder turnovers in Atlanta - things we don't expect from Jalen Hurts - the Commanders might be on a five-game losing streak, and this line would have never dipped below -7 and likely gone higher.

Broncos +7.5 (-115)

This line's come down from +8.5, but there's still a little value left for a Broncos team that's seen their historically bad defensive start turn around with the talent getting healthier.

Denver held up nicely against Patrick Mahomes just two weeks ago. The Broncos might have replicated the close losses from 2022 had they gotten more from their offense in the game. The Chiefs had Nick Bolton causing problems for Russell Wilson, but he's out again with wrist surgery. Look for Denver to run the ball well enough to open up the offense and allow them to stay close.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Bears (+320)

Do you know how much you have to impress to go from Shepherd College to the NFL? Normally, when the "Who?" quarterback gets a look in the NFL, those of us deep in the college football weeds remember the player from his time on a mid-tier ACC or Big Ten team. Those guys get chances that Division II players don't get unless their play, preparation, and football intellect force teams to notice. Maybe Tyson Bagent turns into a pumpkin, but the Bears beat the Raiders comfortably while asking nothing spectacular from their rookie backup quarterback. Perfect for a matchup against an easily confused Chargers defense.

If you're worried about Chicago slowing Justin Herbert (6.6 YPA at home), what have the Chargers done to scare you? Meanwhile, the Bears are tied for the league lead in defensive rushing yards per carry. Their pass defense has improved considerably by having their top three cornerbacks - Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Kyler Gordon - in the lineup simultaneously, and the defensive backfield could be at full strength this week.

Best 6-point teaser

Steelers +8.5 / Lions -2.5 (-130)

Whether it's the magic of Mike Tomlin or a more efficient offense with the return of Diontae Johnson that allows more downfield shots to George Pickens, the Steelers should play yet another close game against the Jaguars this week.

As for the Monday nighter, the line is too high for what the Raiders can do with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. But the chances the Lions win by at least a field goal are better than the 75% required to warrant their use as a teaser leg.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.