MNF best bets: Broncos look to stun wobbling Bills
The Bills hit the prime-time stage trifecta with their third straight week under the lights. Unfortunately for Buffalo, its streak of underwhelming performances goes back further, as it enters tonight's matchup with five consecutive losses against the spread.
Meanwhile, the Broncos went into their bye week with back-to-back outright wins, including a victory over the Chiefs that Denver hopes will act as the turning point for Sean Payton's first season in charge.
With two teams at least drifting in opposite directions, does that mean there's something valuable on the side for Monday night?
Broncos @ Bills (-7, 47.5)
Since their win over the Dolphins, the Bills' rating has dropped from its high point. We're getting close to a buy point on the Bills soon. However, this is more about the current status of the Broncos. The spread for this game got as high as -8.5 early last week but has shortened to the key number of -7, possibly because of bullish sentiment on Denver.
It was an ugly start to Payton's tenure. Each Broncos game seemed to feature close-up shots of the head coach, an alleged offensive mastermind, seemingly annoyed in reaction to Russell Wilson not executing his offense. However, Wilson owns a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If it weren't for last year's fiasco under Nathaniel Hackett, the negative feeling about Wilson wouldn't be pervasive.
The biggest issue has been on defense. For the first five games, the Broncos allowed 7.0 yards per play - the worst in the NFL. The 70-point game in Miami was the headline. Then, Denver made some decisions.
Recognizable veteran names in the front seven - Frank Clark and Randy Gregory - were jettisoned. Josey Jewell and Justin Simmons (hurt in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively) came back to shore up the communication on defense. Ja'Quan McMillian and Fabian Moreau replaced Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis in the secondary.
With all the appropriate defensive pieces in place for Vance Joseph, the Broncos have allowed just 5.3 yards per play in their last three games, two of which came against Kansas City.
The betting market's expectation for Denver before the season was 8.5 wins. Maybe it's taken the Broncos a while to find their level, but if they're a league-average team now and going forward, this line should be under a touchdown against the Bills, a team we haven't definitively found the rating floor for.
Pick: Broncos (+7)
Javonte Williams: Over 55.5 rushing yards
The defense is in order. Wilson and Payton have potentially figured out what plays work for the two of them. But you know what else has changed? The health of their star tailback.
Coming off an ACL tear, Williams was given some time to work his way back to 100% by averaging 12 carries in the first three games, and he didn't look great. Then Williams got hurt against the Bears and missed another week, getting 10 carries in his return at Kansas City. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry in that game, showing that it might be time he gets a full workload.
In the subsequent two games, Williams had 82 and 85 yards, with the number of carries traditionally afforded a true No. 1 running back. With a bye week to get fresh and facing a Bills run defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry (30th in the NFL), Williams should be able to clear this modest total.
Dalton Kincaid: Anytime touchdown (+200)
If you've been watching the last two prime-time Bills games, this isn't an off-the-radar pick to score. Kincaid has the most receptions (26) on the Bills in the three games since Dawson Knox got hurt. His reception and yardage totals are an option, but they've increased as his offensive role has been elevated. His odds for a touchdown have stayed consistent at +200, but we can be sure Josh Allen will look his way when the Bills get in the red zone.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.