TNF best bets: A high-leverage battle in the NFL's deepest division
You'll have a hard time finding two more different matchups than last Thursday's game and this one. Very little was on the line when the Panthers and Bears clunked their heads together for three hours, whereas this week's tilt between the Bengals and Ravens is the most high-leverage game of the season in the AFC North.
With news of Deshaun Watson's season-ending shoulder surgery, the Bengals (+375) are now the second choice in the betting markets to win the AFC North despite their 5-4 record putting them at the bottom of the division. A win in Baltimore on Thursday would put Cincinnati in a tie with Baltimore in the loss column. That would set up a Week 13 matchup at home against the Steelers - while the Ravens are on their bye - which could put them in a tie atop the division.
Bengals @ Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)
The downside of a big Thursday game is that it's played on a Thursday. The short week brings the usual injury question marks, with the Bengals already listing Tee Higgins and Sam Hubbard as out, while Trey Hendrickson and Chidobe Awuzie are both banged up but in line to play.
Meanwhile, the Ravens' injury report lists Ronnie Stanley as out, Marlon Humphrey as doubtful, and John Simpson as questionable. That means there are a lot of matchup permutations that could swing depending on player availability. If both Stanley and Simpson don't go, is missing Hubbard and having a banged-up Hendrickson as big of an issue? What about on the other side of the ball? Is missing Higgins as big of a deal if the Ravens are without Humphrey?
The line has toggled between -3.5 and -4 early in the week as the betting market tries to rationalize the injuries and come to grips with each team losing on last-second field goals this past Sunday. The Ravens' rating in the betting market extended as high as it's been all year before they lost to the Browns. Meanwhile, trying to figure out the Bengals' rating through the ups and downs of Joe Burrow's health has been a puzzle all season.
With even more moving parts than the usual Thursday headache, we're searching for something we can rely on, and that's Burrow as an underdog. The Bengals' quarterback is 13-7 against the spread when he's expected to lose, and the more points he gets, the better the record, often winning outright. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson fell to 26-34 (43.3%) ATS as the favorite.
The betting market isn't fooled by the Steelers' 6-3 start and is also bearish on the Browns. That's good for anyone with tickets on the Ravens to win the AFC North at +225, especially since you can come back and grab the Bengals at +375 before this game to corner the market before the stretch run. That might be a good play even without that original position since Cincinnati is live to win this game if the chips fall its way concerning player availability.
Pick: Bengals (+3.5)
Keaton Mitchell: Over 46.5 rushing + receiving yards
In the first 10 plays last Sunday, Keaton Mitchell had an electric 39-yard touchdown run and a 32-yard reception. On the 13th play from scrimmage, Jackson almost found Mitchell for a deep touchdown. Assuming the Ravens script their first 15 plays, they may have accidentally shredded that screenplay as they gave Mitchell the ball just two more times the rest of the game.
Things can move awfully quickly on the sidelines of an NFL game, so we'll forgive the Ravens for forgetting about their speedy tailback and believe they at least planned to get him the ball and will do a better job of that for 60 minutes Thursday.
Tanner Hudson: Anytime touchdown (+500)
With five targets on 16 snaps against the Bills and seven more in only 20 plays against the Texans, Burrow seems to have faith in Tanner Hudson.
The one notable change out of the Bengals' bye is their desire to throw to the tight end. Hudson missed three games around the week off, but returning to the lineup against Buffalo has provided Burrow with a top target - one whom the QB will look at once Cincinnati approaches the goal line.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.