NFL Week 4 teasers: Stay hot by sticking to the basics
Back-to-back weeks of cashing a teaser is a great feeling. Let's stay hot on the teaser market in Week 4 and stick to our principles of crossing key numbers to create value.
Last week, we had the Bills -1 and the Saints +8. There are a number of options this week to tease and earn similar results.
As always, our weekly reminder: teasers provide value for bettors by capturing key winning margin numbers: three, six, and seven. It never makes sense to tease a game through zero because you lose valuable win probability. Games are hardly won by less than a field goal or end in a super-rare tie.
Let's look at the Rams (+2) road game against the Colts to show how a teaser provides value.
| Alt. spread | Odds |
|---|---|
| +3 | -147 |
| +4 | -180 |
| +5 | -203 |
| +6 | -241 |
| +7 | -301 |
| +8 | -354 |
One leg of a two-team, six-point teaser is priced at -280, which is a better value than parlaying alternate spreads. As you can see above, the alternate spread of Rams +8 is priced at -354. But at +8 as a teaser leg, it's priced at -280.
We need to find another teaser leg that crosses the key numbers to pair with Rams +8 to cash the two-team teaser. Let's look at our teaser basket to see what qualifies.
Teaser Basket
| Team | Odds | Teaser leg |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | +1 | +7 |
| Rams | +2 | +8 |
| Titans | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Dolphins | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Eagles | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Cowboys | -7 | -1 |
| Seahawks | +1.5 | +7.5 |
Aside from the value we get by teasing the Rams, they are a good team that has competed amongst some of the top clubs in the league, including the 49ers and Bengals. They play the Colts on Sunday. Indy looks good but is overvalued after an upset win over the Ravens last week.
There are other decent options to include in the teaser, like the Packers at home on Thursday Night Football or the Eagles at home against a divisional opponent.
But let's go with the Cowboys at -1. The regular spread is a touchdown, so teasing it down so the Cowboys simply have to beat the Patriots is worth it. Dallas is coming off a shocking loss to the Cardinals and will be motivated at home. New England has been competitive in every game, but its only win was against the dysfunctional Jets, and it barely escaped.
The Patriots have a stout defense, but their offense is stale, and the Cowboys' defense should pounce on it.
Lock in the Cowboys -1 and Rams +8 to give us a third consecutive win.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.