NFL Week 5 teasers: Value on 2 unproven quarterbacks
Let's keep this train rolling! We've hit our last three two-team, six-leg teasers. Let's stay hot and build on the streak for Week 5.
We have to remember to stay true to our principles of crossing key numbers to find value. Also, if a two-leg teaser isn't paying at least -120 or better, don't bet it. The value simply isn't there at any longer odds.
Weekly reminder: Teasers can provide value for bettors by capturing key winning margin numbers - three, six, and seven. It never makes sense to tease a game through zero because you lose valuable win probability. Games are hardly won by less than a field goal or end in a super-rare tie.
Let's look at the Jets' (+2.5) road matchup against the Broncos to show how we earn value from teasing a game.
| Alt. spread | Odds |
|---|---|
| +3.5 | -162 |
| +4.5 | -188 |
| +5.5 | -210 |
| +6.5 | -260 |
| +7.5 | -330 |
| +8.5 | -370 |
One leg of a two-team, six-point teaser is priced at -280, which is significantly better value than parlaying Jets +8.5 as an alternate spread at -370.
We've had success in recent weeks finding value on teaser legs and pairing them together to cash our two-team teasers. Let's take a look at our teaser basket to see what options we can pair with Jets +8.5.
Teaser basket
| Team | Odds | Teaser leg |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Texans | +2 | +8 |
| Titans | +1 | +7 |
| Saints | +1.5 | +7.5 |
| Jets | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Raiders | +2.5 | +8.5 |
Backing the Jets with Zach Wilson under center is always a risky proposition. But Wilson actually portrayed confidence and was solid throughout last Sunday's game against the Chiefs. The Jets only lost by three, and their frisky defense held Patrick Mahomes to one of his worst showings in years.
The Jets are now underdogs on the road against the Broncos, whose defense is giving up 37.5 points per game, the most in the league. Denver's only win is against a Bears franchise in complete disarray.
The Jets can win outright if Wilson replicates the performance he displayed last week, so I'll take them to cover more than a touchdown margin against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Commanders have looked good and are worth a glance for Thursday Night Football against the winless Bears. However, after a demoralizing overtime loss and on a short week, I'll stay away.
The Texans have been a competitive 2-2 group, which is surprising given their youth movement. C.J. Stroud doesn't look like a first-year quarterback. He's racked up over 1,200 passing yards and has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions, a rare feat for a rookie. He's the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The Texans' defense is holding opponents to under 20 points per game and going up against a Falcons group led by a struggling Desmond Ridder under center.
The game total is set at 41, which is relatively low and creates a tighter variance. I'm backing Stroud and Co. to keep it within a touchdown.
Let's lock in Jets +8.5 and Texans +8 to win our fourth straight teaser.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.