Best Week 7 total bets: Bills, Dolphins ready to explode
We went 1-2 last week to bring our season record to 10-8.
Unders are hitting at a staggeringly high rate this season: 61% of games have fallen under the point total, the highest win rate for unders through six weeks since 1991.
We broke down how scoring is down this season and why. It's important to keep this in mind when sifting through the totals market.
Here are our best total bets for the weekend:
Raiders @ Bears under 37.5
This may be the ugliest game of the season, and should come with a "Viewer discretion is advised" warning. It likely won't be featured on NFL RedZone much because, well, I can't imagine either team earning too many trips to those parts of the field.
The Bears (1-5) and Raiders (3-3) are struggling franchises that consistently have more questions than answers at season's end. And in Week 7, both are without their starting quarterbacks.
Jimmy Garoppolo is out with a back injury. It's unclear who'll start in his place - either Aidan O'Connell or Brian Hoyer. O'Connell started earlier this season when Garoppolo was injured, but Hoyer replaced Garoppolo when Garoppolo was forced from his last game early.
No matter who starts, the Raiders have the fifth-worst scoring offense in the NFL, and it'll only get worse without Jimmy G. Meanwhile, Bears starter Justin Fields is out with a thumb injury. Rookie Tyson Bagent will make his first start Sunday.
This game won't feature a ton of points with two backup QBs taking over already inadequate offenses.
Bills team total over 24.5 points
The Bills looked like they were cruising after a 28-point win over the Dolphins in Week 4, but they've struggled the last two weeks in a loss to the Jaguars and a narrow win over the Giants. Buffalo scored 20 and 14 points respectively over the last two weeks.
There's no reason to panic, though. The Bills' offense is still elite with Josh Allen under center and weapons all over. The Patriots are the perfect opponent for the Bills to get back on track.
New England is in contention for worst all-around team in the NFL. Its defense looked good on paper to start the season, but the offense has been so putrid that it doesn't really matter what the defense does.
The Patriots have the NFL's ninth-worst scoring defense. While this is a divisional rivalry, Buffalo's the superior team and should steamroll New England.
Dolphins team total over 24.5 points
The Dolphins-Eagles total is the highest of the weekend (51.5) as two of the best offenses in the league meet.
The Dolphins' offense has been exceptional, scoring at least 24 points in five of six games. The Eagles are 2.5-point favorites simply because they're at home. Oddsmakers see this as a closely contested contest between two Super Bowl contenders.
Expect the Eagles to score points, too, especially after their poor offensive showing against the Jets last weekend. This game should be played into the 30s, but I lean towards the Dolphins team total because the Eagles' defense is banged up.
Philadelphia is in desperate need of secondary help. Cornerback Darius Slay and defensive lineman Jalen Carter both missed last week's game, while safety Reed Blankenship and cornerback Bradley Roby left last week's game with injuries. The status of all four remains questionable heading into the weekend.
The Jets weren't able to take advantage because Zach Wilson is their QB. The Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa will exploit the Eagles' injury-riddled defense.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage