MNF best bets: Entertaining QBs get spotlight in Bears-Vikings
It's a bit of a comedown from last Monday's Super Bowl LVII rematch, but a quarterback matchup whose narrative could have involved Kirk Cousins' record in prime time and Tyson Bagent's Cinderella story instead features a pair of exciting options in Joshua Dobbs and Justin Fields.
Bears @ Vikings (-3, 44.5)
For the second straight week, money has come on the underdog in the week leading up to Monday Night Football. The Vikings opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has dropped to the key number of -3.
For those who follow NFL power ratings and use the formula to create point spreads off of that, you could calculate why the initial line was likely too high, but it's even simpler when you compare the Vikings to the Lions. The Bears closed +7.5 at Detroit last week and opened +3.5 at Minnesota this week. Is the difference between the Lions and Vikings only four points?
Of course, crossing the key numbers of -7, -6, and -3 represents a more significant leap than just a handful of points. Oddsmakers will also be loath to shift the line under -3 at the risk of the game landing on Vikings by three and paying out Bears +3.5 and Vikings -2.5.
Why has the betting market shown interest in the Bears?
Regular-season win-total markets projected the Bears to win 7.5 games. Fields' dynamism, the addition of a big-play receiver in D.J. Moore, and an improved defense were expected to put the Bears just under .500. You can blame their 3-8 record on Fields' injury, but if it wasn't for two massive fourth-quarter chokes (versus Denver and Detroit), they would be 5-6. The point is that the current version of the Bears probably fits their 45/100 rating before the season.
Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense is widely known to blitz the most frequently in the league. However, that works best against relatively immobile pocket passers who are asked to consistently read defenses and react. Last week, the Bears showed they're willing to use Fields' legs again, as he took off 18 times. In their first meeting, Fields ran eight times for 46 yards before he was injured on the first drive of the second half. The simplicity of what the Bears do with Fields actually makes the Vikings' defensive complexity less effective.
Lastly, although the Dobbs story is surprisingly fun, this is the first time in his career that he's been asked to win a game by a prescribed margin. He's never been the favorite before. Dobbs has a rushing touchdown in five straight games, but only the Patriots and Panthers have given up fewer yards per game to opposing quarterbacks than the Bears, and Chicago hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season.
Pick: Bears (+3)
Joshua Dobbs: Under 232.5 passing yards
Dobbs has thrown for more than 232 yards twice in his career. Against the Saints, he took advantage of their blissful ignorance of T.J. Hockenson, and they allowed one of the easiest options for a new quarterback to tear them up in the first half. Since halftime of that game, however, Hockenson has five catches for 61 yards. The improved Bears defense allowed only 5.6 yards per pass attempt in the last three games, which is top 10 in that time frame and would be third in the league for a full season.
Justin Fields: Anytime touchdown (+210)
If Fields has a similar volume of rushing attempts to last week, there are just too many ways that he could find himself in the end zone. Fields can score from a distance after eluding a blitz, on a designed rush in the red zone, or via a quarterback sneak at the goal line. He only has one touchdown this season, which is why his scoring is available at better than +200. After eight touchdowns last season, this version of Fields is more likely to score than the implied probability of 33%.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.