Week 15 round-robin underdog parlay: New York state of mind?

We were close to a full McDuck situation.

The Rams led throughout their game in Baltimore, but a punt return touchdown in overtime prevented us from going five-for-five in Week 14.

Content with four winners and connecting four parlays for a net payout of approximately +650, we won't whine about missed block-in-the-back penalties. With our sixth winner of the season, we're now up between 12 and 17 units (depending on your sportsbook) before factoring in a 41-29 record against the spread (+9.1 units).

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold-doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Broncos (+175) over Lions

The Lions are struggling with turnovers. They tallied three in Chicago and have committed 10 in the last four games. In the lone contest from that stretch where Detroit didn't give the ball away, they won the turnover battle 2-0 and used both giveaways to get ahead of the Saints.

The Broncos had their own outlier game two weeks ago. They lost the turnover battle in Houston and nearly won. The defeat reminded Russell Wilson - who's been otherwise good with ball security this season - that he needs to be careful. If Wilson is cautious against a Lions defense that allowed 7.6 yards per play to Jordan Love, Derek Carr, and Justin Fields, Denver's live to win.

Giants (+220) over Saints

The Saints won handily last week, but the scoreboard was wildly misleading. New Orleans managed just 207 yards of offense and Carr was seen jawing with his offensive line. Relying on the Saints' offense to produce against an improving Giants defense is wishful thinking given what we've seen this season.

Tommy DeVito is the headliner, using his legs to keep the chains moving and making occasional on-target throws. However, it's not a coincidence that New York's uptick in production has come with the return of its first-string offensive tackles, Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal. They're arguably the most important pieces toward the team pulling off a fourth straight moneyline upset.

Panthers (+140) over Falcons

We called the Panthers' first win this season, and we're calling for Carolina to secure its second.

Last week, it seemed like every second play saw a Falcons lineman - both offensive and defensive - leave the game with an injury. If the trenches are compromised for Atlanta, I'll happily fade the team on the road against Carolina, who is excelling defensively with most of its injured starters back in action. The Panthers' offense is still struggling, but Grady Jarrett's November departure hurt, and Atlanta will be down at least one defensive tackle. Already subpar at getting pass rush pressure, the Falcons should give up yardage on the ground to Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, allowing Bryce Young to have his best game of the season.

Jets (+360) over Dolphins

Speaking of questionable injury designations, the Dolphins are loaded with them on a short week. Even if Tyreek Hill plays, the Jets have cornerbacks that can deter Tua Tagovailoa from looking to him.

But the big deal is Miami's offensive line. Center Connor Williams is already out for the season, his replacement is questionable along with both tackles, and guard Robert Hunt is doubtful. Miami was blessed with a pick-six and two short fields in accruing their three touchdowns on Monday.

Commanders (+240) over Rams

NFL teams don't tank, and they rarely quit. The Commanders are admittedly a candidate for such labels, but, assuming everyone is playing and coaching for their careers, there's reason to believe that a fresh Washington team coming off its bye can go score-for-score with the Rams and maybe win a shootout.

Los Angeles has the seventh-worst sack percentage, which means more time for Sam Howell and Washington's pass-heavy offense than they had in blowout losses to the Dolphins and Cowboys. Meanwhile, this is the biggest favorite the Rams have been all season, and winning convincingly hasn't been their style.

How the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.