Coach of the Year odds: Who will emerge from crowded list of contenders?

At this point in the NFL season, most award markets are between two, maybe three, candidates who have a real chance. Some, such as the Offensive Rookie of the Year, are all but locked up.

However, the Coach of the Year award is completely up in the air, with no coach shorter than +250 and six shorter than +1000. For comparison, the next-closest races from an odds perspective are MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, each with only three players shorter than +1000.

Let's dig into the candidates for the season's top coach.

Coach of the Year odds

Odds via theScore Bet

Dan Campbell is the favorite at +260 and has been at, or near, the top of the oddsboard all season. Working in Campbell's favor is the fact that the Lions have already recorded 10 victories, a total that seems to be a barometer for recent Coach of the Year winners.

Only one coach has won the award with a team that finished with nine or fewer wins since 1990, and that was Brian Daboll last year.

Bruce Arians won the award in 2012 with a 9-3 record, but he took over for Chuck Pagano, who stepped away after being diagnosed with leukemia, and the Colts finished the season at 11-5.

Making the playoffs is also a must. The last coach to win the award and miss the playoffs was Jimmy Johnson in 1990, when the Cowboys finished at 7-9.

Ten wins and a playoff spot puts the resumes of both DeMeco Ryans (Texans) and Shane Steichen (Colts) in question.

Ryans has done an incredible job turning around a struggling Texans organization and likely leading C.J. Stroud to the Offensive Rookie of the Year honor. The Texans have won more games under Ryans this year than their past two seasons combined. Stroud is likely to miss his second straight game, and another win with backup Case Keenum could strengthen Ryans' case further.

But both the Texans and Colts sit at eight wins and are battling for one of the AFC's final wild-card berths. In the next two weeks, the Texans play the Browns and Titans, and the Colts have the Falcons and Raiders, before the two division rivals face off in what could be a play-in game in Week 18.

Whichever coach comes out on top in that Week 18 game to potentially clinch a wild-card spot could win the Coach of the Year.

The next two coaches on the oddsboard - Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan - have one thing working against them: high expectations. This theory can also be applied to Campbell.

It was assumed before the start of the season that the Dolphins, 49ers, and Lions would compete for a division title. Anything short of the playoffs for these three teams would have been a disappointment.

Since Daboll won last year with a 9-7-1 record, it seems as though preseason expectations are factored into the vote. The Giants overachieved and snuck into the playoffs, which wowed voters in Daboll's first year with the team.

Whether fair or not, higher preseason expectations are hurting McDaniel's and Shanahan's chances. If the 49ers' coach couldn't garner enough votes last year with 13 wins while starting three different quarterbacks, he's unlikely to get more recognition this season with another talent-rich team and the MVP favorite, Brock Purdy.

Kevin Stefanski is also deserving of the award. The Browns' coach has won games with four different starting quarterbacks and is getting the most out of current starter Joe Flacco, who was signed off the street a month ago. The Browns are somehow 9-5 and holding the top wild-card position in the AFC.

If Stefanski wins the honor, he would join Bill Belichick, Ron Rivera, and Arians as the only multi-time winners in the last 20 years.

There are only three weeks left in the regular season but so much has yet to be determined. Perhaps a long shot like Zac Taylor could come out of nowhere and steal the award if the Bengals stay hot with backup quarterback Jake Browning. Or maybe John Harbaugh will win his second COY award if the Ravens can run the table to an AFC-best 14-3 record.

Either way, for bettors out there, the Coach of the Year market may be the most compelling market to follow as the regular season comes to a close.