TNF best bets: Jets, Browns primed to close up shop on weeknight football

Thursday Night Football is tough. A new week of NFL betting comes with a level of importance to the ledger that feels bigger than anyone is comfortable with given how wonky the game usually is.

We didn't get a clean first game with the Chiefs' Travis Kelce and Chris Jones uncertain for the NFL opener against Detroit. In Week 2, the Eagles forgot to use the two-point conversion. Later in the season, Trevor Lawrence was rumored to be injured when he wasn't. There was no word of a lingering Joe Burrow injury before Week 11 when he was hurt.

The Raiders scored 63 points in a game. The Patriots scored 21 in a half.

These are just a couple of examples of how hard Thursday Night Football can be to handicap, especially in comparison to Monday nights, when the variable of a lack of rest is removed. Luckily, we've been able to catch a few breaks in the anytime touchdown market to start our week in the black.

Jets @ Browns (-7.5, 34.5)

With a total in the mid-30s, a spread of 7.5 points feels like twice that. So what's the likelihood that the Browns win by more than one score in a game between two of the three best defenses in the NFL by yards per play?

After two close wins at home, Cleveland went to Houston, where Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper cooked the Texans while the Case Keenum-Davis Mills duo had little chance to compete. That recipe might be repeatable, but the Jets' defense should be able to handle Flacco's willingness to go deep. If there's any team that respects Flacco's arm strength and knows how beneficial it is to put him under pressure, it's his former team.

In the Jets' last three games against the Texans, Dolphins, and Commanders, they increased their sack percentage into the NFL's top 10. Flacco's opponents during this renaissance rank 29th (Jacksonville), 31st (Chicago) and 19th (Houston, who didn't have Will Anderson) in hauling down the quarterback. Between knowledge of Flacco's game and play preferences, the Jets boast the best pass rush that he and the Browns' offensive line have had to deal with.

Had this game been played last week, this line would have been -5.5 or -6. Trevor Siemian isn't much fun to bet on, but the spread is up over a touchdown for a game with a low total, meaning the Jets are the side to play.

Pick: Jets (+7.5)

Jason Brownlee: Over 12.5 rec yards

The rookie's stat line from the Commanders game - just the second contest in which he saw significant action this season - didn't look like much, but Jason Brownlee played 82% of the snaps, which was second only to Garrett Wilson. His lone reception was an 8-yard touchdown catch. But in his other game - Week 12 versus the Dolphins - he caught two passes for 20 yards. At a point in the season where the Jets are better off seeing what they have in Brownlee than running Allen Lazard out there as the number two, look for Brownlee to get more than a couple of looks and clear his short yardage total.

David Njoku: Anytime touchdown (+190)

Cooper had the big game last week, but with 31 targets in three games, David Njoku is clearly Flacco's favorite target. He's caught 22 balls and had four touchdowns during this streak, so, with Cooper likely to get a heavy-handed helping of Sauce Gardner, Njoku is at least 50/50 to find the end zone, and he's available for as high as +210 to score.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.