NFL Week 17 best bets: Counting down winners on New Year's Eve?

Still unsure how the Packers (-5) and Jets (-3) didn't cover last week, we soldier on after going 3-2 against the spread while player props compensated for a teaser flunking out again.

Since betting is a life-long learning process, we'll hypothesize that we started teasers too soon (0-3 start) and quit them too late (1-3 finish). The best chance to win on those always falls in the middle of the season (6-2 from Weeks 4-12) since that's when the games should land closest to either side of the point spread. The way teasers are priced now (commonly at -130 for a two-leg 6-pointer), they may need to be used as an exception and not an obligation in 2024.

Best bets ATS

Saints @ Buccaneers (-2.5, 42.5)

Numbers-based bettors - seeing value relative to previous team ratings in the betting market - would understandably want to back the Saints, who opened +3 at Tampa Bay. After all, these teams have been rated in line with each other all season.

But what if the Buccaneers have used a first-year offensive coordinator with their first-year quarterback and Comeback Player of the Year candidate Baker Mayfield to slowly develop until they're now considerably better than a seemingly uninspired Saints outfit?

If that's the case, the Buccaneers - nearing another division title and potentially a respectable 10-win season - are being discounted for the second straight week, having closed as home underdogs before destroying the Jaguars.

Pick: Buccaneers (-2.5)

Falcons @ Bears (-2.5, 37.5)

With 10 games in Sunday's early window alone, we need not waste time getting too deep into metrics for this matchup. It boils down to this: Taylor Heinicke and the Falcons aren't going to have the same success on the road outdoors against a good defense as they did at home indoors against a subpar Colts unit. Meanwhile, the Bears showed they could hold a lead well enough to win by a decent margin in taking care of the Cardinals last week.

Pick: Bears (-2.5)

49ers @ Commanders (+12.5, 49.5)

Another express pick since you already know the Commanders' defense is among the worst in the NFL.

Jacoby Brissett gets the start because he's given Washington life in the second half the last two weeks. However, that happened against softened defenses hoping to protect a lead, not a 49ers group likely frothing at the collective mouth.

Quick trivia: When was the last time the Commanders gave up fewer than 31 points at home?

Answer: Week 1 versus the Cardinals.

Pick: 49ers (-12.5)

Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5, 37)

The Chargers got their bump in energy in a prime-time game last Saturday, proving that their embarrassing performance in Las Vegas was a story that should stay there and kicking enough field goals to give the Bills a scare. Now it's time to hit the road against the Broncos, who should also be putting their best foot forward.

Denver has unceremoniously shown Russell Wilson the door, and the line dropped with its closure, but should that have been the case? If Sean Payton's problem with the offense was Wilson, should Denver be giving four fewer points this week than it did to the Patriots last week? This looks like an over-adjustment, and we'll play it expecting a more aggressive Broncos offense to get a bump of its own.

Pick: Broncos (-3.5)

Round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

We were TBD on a RUMP this week, but lo and behold, more than a few 'dogs qualify as best bets against the spread and may be live to win outright.

Lions (+5.5, +200) over Cowboys

All of a sudden, the Lions - playing on Saturday night, ahead of the competition - have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

When this line sat as high as -6.5 early in the week, perhaps the assumption was that the Cowboys would bounce back at home, but what if they're now resigned to another (likely) trip to Tampa Bay as the 5-seed? You don't want to be low on motivation against Dan Campbell's group.

Titans (+4.5, +175) over Texans

C.J. Stroud is back, but a lot has changed for the Texans since they reached their peak rating right before he was concussed against the Jets. Tank Dell and Tytus Howard aren't joining him back on the field, and seven different defenders are questionable for their rematch with the Titans, who went to overtime with Houston two weeks ago.

Dolphins (+3, +150) over Ravens

A short week for the Ravens to prepare for another tough offense leaves the door open for a loss since they know they have a second chance to clinch the AFC's top seed next week anyway.

Raiders (+3.5, +160) over Colts

Two weeks ago, the Colts were -1 at home to Mitch Trubisky and trailed the Steelers by two touchdowns before Pittsburgh lost two safeties on the same drive and Indianapolis came back to win.

At this point in the season, are we sure Pittsburgh is better than Las Vegas?

If we're not, then this spread should be tighter and the moneyline shorter. That means there's some value in betting on the Raiders, even if we'll need Aidan O'Connell to complete a pass or two in the final three quarters.

Panthers (+6, +220) over Jaguars

Let's make this bet ASAP before Doug Pederson seemingly gets his way and Trevor Lawrence is finally so injured that he can't play - and this line drops. Even if Lawrence is active, the Panthers are getting better by the week, and with Jacksonville disintegrating, we might catch a sizable underdog in a great situation.

How the odds look this week

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.