NFL MVP betting: How the current favorite gets caught with 2 weeks to go
The NFL MVP is a two-player race, but the prices don't reflect that.
Like the voting itself, that take is a subjective one, but if figuring out who voters would select for various awards was black and white, there'd never be an opportunity to get a price on a player with an obvious path to victory.
Before the Ravens' blowout of the 49ers, Brock Purdy was the favorite to win MVP - something that never felt completely right. The Ravens' defense intercepted Purdy four times, and like Kaizer Soze, just like that, his chances were gone.
NFL MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | -180 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +450 |
| Tua Tagovialoa | +1000 |
| Josh Allen | +1100 |
| Brock Purdy | +1400 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 |
| Tyreek Hill | +1800 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +6600 |
| Jared Goff | +10000 |
*Odds provided by theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
The Ravens' defense dominated Purdy, and, as a result, quarterback Lamar Jackson became the odds-on favorite to win MVP. It's somewhat illogical, isn't it? Sure, Jackson was good on Christmas night with 297 total yards and two touchdowns, but he wasn't the most valuable entity in beating San Francisco.
MVP odds inertia
No one has a clear path to win like Jackson, so he takes his turn as the favorite right now. But if we've learned anything from the carousel of MVP favorites (and the Heisman Trophy market evolution) this season, it's that awards markets these days command the attention span of a kid on Christmas morning.
If we're giving the award to the quarterback on the best team, Jackson replaces Purdy in that category, and all it should take is a Ravens win over Miami on Sunday to seal up the AFC's top seed. Assuming it's that simple, just bet the Baltimore moneyline at -170 and take your money this week rather than waiting until February.
Of course, there are no guarantees in football, as we saw when the underdog Ravens won last week, and the possibility exists that Baltimore doesn't win this week.
So what if they don't?
Josh Allen to win MVP (+1100)
Something's missing from Josh Allen's MVP candidacy, but that's a good thing. He can't be the favorite right now - his team hasn't clinched a playoff spot, let alone its division. However, he does have the stats.
| PLAYER | PASS + RUSH YDS | TOTAL TD | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 4191 | 40 | 71.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4267 | 26 | 59.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4143 | 24 | 63.0 |
What's missing for Allen is team success. Here's what that looks like in betting parlance - a Dolphins (over Ravens) and Bills (over Patriots) parlay in Week 17 rolled over onto the Bills over the Dolphins in Week 18:
- Week 17: Dolphins (+145) * Bills (-700) = +180 (total 2.8 units)
- Week 18: 2.8 units * Bills (+115) = +488
A parlay that pays +488 would give the Bills a five-game win streak to end the season, two wins over the Dolphins, and a playoff spot that six weeks earlier seemed highly unlikely.
Call me crazy, but I like a little adversity in my MVPs. If your team is loaded with a dozen All-Pros and a second MVP candidate (Dolphins, 49ers), or your defense is the best in the league (Ravens), or your head coach is an unquestioned football and motivational genius (Dolphins, 49ers, and Ravens), can you be the most valuable player in the league?
Through 10 games, Allen's coaching had let him down to the point where Buffalo fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Meanwhile, Allen's top target, Stefon Diggs, is tied for 17th in receiving yards per game. The Bills' defense also let Allen down early in the season because of injuries to key players.
That's the case for Allen to win the award, but, in the end, this comes down to comparing the value of bets.
A net +488 parlay will cash 17% of the time. Allen's +1100 odds expect him to win MVP 8.3% of the time. That's a value of +8.7% that doesn't even account for the Ravens beating the Dolphins, which might help Allen's chances, too.
That result would make for a division-title showdown between the Bills and Dolphins in Week 18, something that would be ideally flexed into a prime-time slot. A Bills win would give Allen a division title of his own, leaving voters to decide between Jackson's team being the No. 1 seed and Allen's statistical advantage and better season-long narrative - a decision that a panel of 50 voting sportswriters might be enthralled by.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.