Playoff betting: Wild Card Weekend recap, divisional opening lines
In the NFL, as in life, when someone tells you who they are, believe them.
The Cowboys have long proven unserious when it comes to the postseason, so the biggest upset of Wild Card Weekend couldn't have surprised anyone other than Jerry Jones. Meanwhile, the Eagles didn't do anything down the stretch to show you they should be favored over anyone. Neither the Buccaneers' nor the Packers' win felt like an outlier result.
The Texans' blowout of the Browns was impressive but did feel like it came from one end of a game-result bell curve. After a six-game Super Wild Card Weekend, that matchup also feels like it happened before the Ice Age - and in some ways, it did, considering the state of Andy Reid's mustache in Kansas City on Saturday night. Predictably, like actual Dolphins in arctic conditions, Miami's offense had no chance against the Chiefs' defense.
The most interesting second half of the six games came in Detroit without so much as one touchdown. Thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who had the over, but the Rams had to thread the eye of a needle by covering +3 without ever having a lead and facing an 11-point deficit to the Lions at one point. That's hard to do.
In terms of our wagers, we'll remember the 2023 Wild Card Weekend for long-shot touchdowns that came home. We scored with Brevin Jordan (+800), Dawson Knox (+700), and Calvin Austin III (+1200), making it somewhat surprising that we didn't have tickets for unlikely TD-scorers David Moore, Trey Palmer, or Luke Musgrave.
As we turn the page to the divisional round, let's look at where the betting lines have settled and what that says about each team.
Texans @ Ravens (-9, 44.5)
The Ravens opened as 8.5-point favorites. Whether there was early money on Baltimore at that number or it created vulnerability for 6-point teasers to bring the Ravens down to -2.5, the line has been pushed up to -9. This is likely where it should have started, regardless of how well the Texans played. The total has ticked down from an open of 46.
Packers @ 49ers (-9.5, 50.5)
This line is teetering between -9.5 and -10. It sits outside of teaser range while also accounting for another upgrade to the Packers' market rating to counteract any rest advantage the 49ers have. The total has held steady so far, as this is expected to be the highest-scoring game next weekend.
Buccaneers @ Lions (-6.5, 48.5)
Some bettors might have been willing to knock aside the elderly to get the Lions at -5.5 before it moved up to -6 in mere minutes late Monday night. As of Tuesday afternoon, the line's headed even further Detroit's way, with many books offering a flat -6.5 on either side. There's been no movement on the total.
Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5, 46.5)
The headlining closer for the divisional round might end up being this week's cat-and-mouse game within the betting market. Will there ever be enough interest in the Bills at -2.5 (-115) that we see -110 odds on either side of -3, and at that point, how long does Chiefs +3 last before sharp bettors pounce?
Using these lines, we can decipher how the market rates the remaining eight teams.
Playoff team power ratings
The ratings below are out of 100 and suggest the likelihood, as a percentage, of that team beating an average team on a neutral field. They are estimates based on recent point spreads.
| TEAM | RATING (/100) |
|---|---|
| 49ers | 84 |
| Ravens | 77 |
| Bills | 72 |
| Chiefs | 70 |
| Lions | 60 |
| Packers | 54 |
| Texans | 44 |
| Buccaneers | 43 |
This is a helpful reminder that the 49ers are still considered head and shoulders above even the Ravens. On a neutral field, San Francisco would be a 2-point favorite should all things remain equal.
It's also noteworthy that the 49ers' path to Las Vegas improved this past weekend while they weren't even playing. The Cowboys and the cratering Eagles were rated higher than the Lions. Should the home teams win in the NFC games this coming weekend, San Francisco should be over a converted-touchdown favorite at home to Detroit in the NFC championship. Meanwhile, the Ravens wouldn't be much higher than -3 against the Chiefs or Bills.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.