Super Bowl MVP betting: 3 non-QBs worth a wager
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On Monday, we made our pick for Super Bowl LVIII - arguing why the valuable side is the favorite on the moneyline. The short version of that argument is that the 49ers are available at -125 or an implied win probability of 55.6%, when, for much of the season, they would've been considered more likely to win this matchup than that.
As we turn toward the Super Bowl MVP market, implied win probability is the cornerstone for shopping for value as we look to accompany our bet on San Francisco.
The implied win probability column adds up to 118% - a sportsbook hold of 18% that doesn't account for the long-shot players not listed above. In the lead-up to the big game, that hold is often reduced, and the odds for each player get better. Unless one player stands out as a popular wager, it's worth waiting to place your bets.
All of these odds are calculated with the implication that either team can win. Of course, this is true, but if you like one side or the other, betting on players from your selected team makes the most sense.
Sixteen media members vote on MVP, accounting for 80% of the voting calculus. Meanwhile, there's a fan vote worth 20%. Popular players who are a factor early and often in the game have the best chance at winning MVP. While that's frequently the quarterback of the winning team - the reason Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy have the shortest odds - the signal-caller has won MVP only 56% of the time in Super Bowl history.
Mahomes (+130) is expected to win MVP 43.5% of the time, but the Chiefs' moneyline (+105) suggests they win just 48.8%. Mahomes is taking up 89% of Kansas City's metaphorical MVP pie, making someone like Travis Kelce (+1400) a better potential choice if you like the Chiefs to win or think the game is close enough where a big performance from the internationally recognized and suddenly surging Kelce might earn him MVP in a losing cause.
For the 49ers, Purdy (+225) is expected to take home Super Bowl MVP 30.8% of the time. Compared to the 49ers' 55.6% implied win probability, Purdy's odds line up with history, taking up 55.4% of the 49ers' pie.
There's a reason for this discrepancy. Purdy's not seen as the central driver for San Francisco's success - a hurdle for something that's voted on. History states that if the 49ers win, there's a 44% chance that someone other than the quarterback will win MVP.
With a game total of 47.5 points and a 49ers team that's made it to Las Vegas thanks to a well-rounded offense (as the defense has appeared to take a step back), we'll look to fill that remaining 44% of the pie with offensive players who could pile up attractive stats.
Naturally, that starts with Christian McCaffrey, who, like Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp two years ago, will likely be named the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year a few nights before the Super Bowl. With over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns, he's deemed 18.2% likely to be Super Bowl MVP. However, looking at the 49ers' games this season, it can be argued that McCaffrey was San Francisco's statistical MVP in five of their 12 wins (41.6%) and both 49ers playoff victories. With McCaffrey the best player on the field in half their wins, there's probably closer to a 25% chance he is again on Sunday.
Interestingly, by the numbers, Purdy was the definitive 49ers MVP in just three games this season (Week 5 versus the Cowboys, Week 10 versus the Jaguars, and Week 11 versus the Buccaneers).
As a threat on the ground in the red zone and capable of breaking short passes into long touchdowns, Deebo Samuel can also steal the statistical spotlight. He was the Niners' star in Weeks 3, 13, and 14 (21% of their wins, including playoffs). At +2000, Samuel is only supposed to earn a trip to Disneyland 4.8% of the time, or less than 10% of the time when the 49ers win. An 11% gap is significant and makes Samuel worth adding to our MVP bets.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.