NFL 2024 MVP odds: Buying the Fields rumor to beat the market

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Josh Allen is a really good bet to win the 2024 NFL MVP.

Allen is a known quantity whose candidacy for the award has slowly improved year over year.

The stats will almost definitely be there. Allen added "goal-line running back" to his resume in 2023, running for 66% more touchdowns than his previous career high.

Team success will also likely be there. The Bills stormed down the stretch of the 2023 season to get the AFC's No. 2 seed.

So why not bet on Allen right now? Because the chances that Allen's odds get significantly shorter are lower than the 11.8% implied win probability that +750 odds suggest. We can revisit his candidacy in August and likely not lose any value on a bet that doesn't get paid out until early February 2025.

NFL 2024 MVP odds

Remember the summer of 2023? If you don't, who could blame you for forgetting that Justin Fields was the hot commodity for MVP bettors? It was silly at the time, and even more so after seeing the import voters put on the team success of Lamar Jackson's Ravens.

Jackson finished 15th in passing yards and 11th in passing touchdowns last season. Sure, he also added 50 rushing yards per game but had just five touchdowns on the ground. Forty-nine out of 50 MVP voters willfully ignored the Ravens' defense's impact on their 13-4 season. It halted the Texans' momentum in the divisional round before giving Jackson every opportunity to come back and beat the Chiefs, but it was too late to be reflected in the voting.

Jackson wasn't burdened by being a season-long MVP favorite. Baltimore's win at San Francisco, where the Ravens forced four turnovers, made Jackson the late favorite. This follows a recent trend of voters having a short-term memory when it comes to the MVP and Heisman Trophy. It's also another reason we don't want a favorite early, as fans and media get bored with the presumptive winner and look for someone else to throw their hat in the ring.

If your desire is to make a bet now, the only way to do it is to analyze the only question that matters when looking at NFL futures markets in February.

Whose odds can shorten between now and August?

Oddsmakers are beating bettors to the punch on a pair of newcomers to the MVP conversation: Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud. Tied for the fourth choice, the word is out that each young quarterback is ready to make the leap. Making a bet after the buzz shapes the market is rarely a good idea, as there's nowhere to go but down. Change is how things improve for a player's award contention.

Fields was coming into last season with a three-win team that hadn't augmented their overall talent. The Bears acquired assets that should portend good things for their future, but adding DJ Moore was never going to be enough to improve Chicago by 10-plus wins.

Betting markets have Fields at +700 (12.5% likely) to be in Chicago next season. He also wiped his social media clean of Bears-centric content. There are two teams he's most likely to play for: the Falcons and the Steelers.

The Falcons won seven games last year, and their place in the NFC South means a big jump is way easier than if they played in almost any other division. They pillaged the Rams' coaching staff for head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who likely won't ignore Atlanta's best playmakers.

The Steelers won 10 games last year without a quality quarterback. While Arthur Smith failed miserably as a head coach, he could tap into what made him successful in Tennessee if Fields ends up in Pittsburgh. Fields - who's had some massive statistical games - could take off for a team with a chance at 10-plus wins.

Buying Fields at 60-1 before the rush is the type of low-risk, high-reward bet that you won't notice you've lost but will have your attention if the quarterback soon finds himself in a better situation.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.