What the odds say: Which breakout candidate at QB will have the best season?
No position in sports is more important than quarterback, and every team in the NFL dreams of having the next Patrick Mahomes.
The hope of finding the next big thing is why nearly a third of the NFL will turn to either a rookie or second-year quarterback at some point this season, many of whom already showed flashes in Week 1 of preseason.
Let's look at how the betting market projects five young quarterbacks with breakout potential excluding C.J. Stroud, who is already the second favorite to win MVP.
Anthony Richardson
| Stat | Season total/Odds |
|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 3175.5 |
| Pass TDs | 17.5 |
| Rush Yards | 525.5 |
| Rush TDs | 7.5 |
| MVP | +3000 |
| OPOY | +7500 |
Odds via theScore Bet
Anthony Richardson's rookie campaign was cut short due to an injury to his throwing shoulder, but not before he electrified the NFL in the season's first month.
In four games, Richardson threw for 577 yards and three touchdowns, adding 136 yards on the ground and four rushing touchdowns. Expectations are high for the duel-threat quarterback in his second year. His passing yard total is low, but he has the third-highest rushing total of all quarterbacks, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. He has the same odds to win MVP as Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence.
Bryce Young
| Stat | Season total/Odds |
|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 3175.5 |
| Pass TDs | 18.5 |
| MVP | +10000 |
| OPOY | +20000 |
Bryce Young's first year in the league was a disaster. The Panthers only won twice and the talent with which they surrounded their rookie quarterback wasn't any good.
There's some reason for optimism going into Year 2. Carolina added Diontae Johnson to help Young and take some of the receiving pressure off the aging Adam Thielen. The Panthers also added two pieces - guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis - to an offensive line that struggled to protect Young and has a new head coach and offensive coordinator.
Young threw for 2,877 yards last year, and with all of the improvements around him, you have to imagine he can surpass his low total of 3,175.5.
Will Levis
| Stat | Season total/Odds |
|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 3450.5 |
| Pass TDs | 19.5 |
| MVP | +10000 |
| OPOY | +20000 |
Will Levis started nine games last year after spending the first half of the season on the sideline. He averaged 200 yards passing per game in his nine starts, a number he will have to improve upon in order to surpass his total for 2024.
The Titans' offensive additions should help. They plucked Calvin Ridley away from their division rivals and added Tony Pollard to their backfield. The ceiling feels high for the gunslinging Levis, but the floor also seems rather low, as he's one of the favorites to lead the NFL in interceptions.
Caleb Williams
| Stat | Season total/Odds |
|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 3450.5 |
| Pass TDs | 22.5 |
| OROY | +140 |
| MVP | +5000 |
| OPOY | +10000 |
Unlike Young, Caleb Williams is walking into a far more desirable situation for a first overall pick.
The Bears are doing a tremendous job of surrounding their new franchise quarterback with options. They added Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift, and drafted Rome Odunze to a team that already had the sure-handed DJ Moore.
Williams is the big favorite at +140 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. In his limited playing time on Saturday, he showed Bears fans that there are plenty of reasons to buy the hype.
Jayden Daniels
| Stat | Season total/Odds |
|---|---|
| Pass Yards | 3100.5 |
| Pass TDs | 17.5 |
| OROY | +600 |
| MVP | +20000 |
| OPOY | +20000 |
The expectations for the No. 2 pick are far lower than those for Williams, but if last year told us anything, there's a chance Jayden Daniels can still be this year's standout rookie.
The talent around the quarterback isn't as good as Chicago's, but the Commanders aren't completely barren at offensive skill positions. Terry McLaurin is one of the most reliable wideouts in the league, Jahan Dotson has plenty of upside, and a backfield of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler can help alleviate some of the pressure on Daniels.
Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy, and Drake Maye, three of the other four rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first 12 picks of the 2024 draft, are expected to log plenty of playing time this year, but sportsbooks have yet to offer betting totals since their teams haven't announced a starting quarterback for Week 1.
Nix has the shortest odds of the three to win Rookie of the Year at +1400, with McCarthy at +2000, and Maye with the longest odds at +2500.
Michael Penix Jr., who was selected eighth overall to back up Kirk Cousins, is +7500 to earn the top-rookie honors, as he'll only see playing time if Cousins suffers an injury.