Rodgers, Burrow favorites to win Comeback Player of the Year

Quarterback injuries riddled the 2023 NFL season, which led to poor offensive production throughout the league. Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles four plays into the season, Kirk Cousins did the same in Week 8, Joe Burrow tore a ligament in his wrist, Anthony Richardson's rookie campaign ended in Week 5, and Daniel Jones tore his ACL in Week 9.

Last season's countless ailments create a wide-open and star-studded race for the Comeback Player of the Year. The award is typically given to a player returning from a major injury or someone who resurrected a dying career. This year's winner will likely go to the former with the onslaught of injuries that occurred last year.

Comeback Player of the Year odds

Odds via theScore Bet

This is an interesting market where voters' tendencies are unpredictable, and the criteria often vary from year to year. Damar Hamlin entered last season as a prohibitive -275 favorite and climbed to -750, giving him an 88% implied probability of winning the honor.

Hamlin's miraculous recovery from an on-field cardiac arrest to returning to football and earning a roster spot is a monumental comeback. Plus, oddsmakers assumed Hamlin's newfound celebrity following the incident would lead to an automatic gifting of the award.

But after Hamlin played in only five games and had virtually no on-field impact throughout the season, voters decided the recipient had to be someone else. Joe Flacco, who had a successful five-game stint with the Browns to close the campaign, earned the award.

This year's contest is likely a two-horse race between Rodgers and Burrow, two of the NFL's best quarterbacks. Both missed enough time last year that a productive 2024 would warrant the award. Rodgers is a slight favorite because coming back from a serious leg injury at 40 is more impressive than returning from a wrist injury at 27. Remember, this is a narrative award.

As long as Rodgers and Burrow perform to expectations - they're both top-10 MVP favorites - they'll be among the finalists at the season's conclusion.

The Jets bolstered their offensive line and have enough weapons for Rodgers to lead an explosive offensive attack. Burrow could be without star receiver Ja'Marr Chase, who has been holding out because of a contract dispute but showed up to practice last weekend. Burrow and Rodgers are talented enough to overcome offensive holes.

Burrow won the award with a breakout 2021 sophomore season after an injury ended his rookie campaign the previous year. Anthony Richardson could follow a similar trajectory. The Colts quarterback showed flashes of star potential before a concussion followed by a shoulder injury limited his first season. Richardson could reclaim that magic this campaign as a dual-threat signal-caller who might have Indianapolis competing for a postseason berth.

Sam Darnold is the starter in Minnesota after J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury. Darnold likely would have started Week 1 anyway, but now there's no threat to take his job. He fits under the category of someone who could revitalize his career if he has a productive season. Darnold has mostly served as a backup at his last two stops but has a keen opportunity with the Vikings in Kevin O'Connell's pass-heavy offense.

Although Cousins, Richardson, Darnold, and others are worthy contenders, this race will be between Rodgers and Burrow. Burrow's season-long passing-yards prop is 4,025.5, and his passing-touchdowns prop is 27.5. Rodgers has a 3,725.5 passing-yards line and a passing-touchdown line of 26.5.

According to oddsmakers, Burrow has a 10% chance of winning MVP, while Rodgers has a 4% chance. The Comeback Player of the Year award isn't quite the MVP, but it could be a nice consolation for the game's premier talents returning from lost seasons.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.