NFL Week 2 betting fallout: Saints surge, 0-2 contenders in a rut

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Every Monday, we'll analyze key storylines from the previous week and how they impact bettors and markets moving forward.

Should Bengals, Ravens be concerned?

Not many people had the Steelers being 2-0, while the Bengals and Ravens are 0-2 on their 2024 NFL bingo card. But that's how the AFC North standings look through two weeks.

Should Cincinnati and Baltimore - two of the top four preseason favorites to win the AFC - be concerned with their slow starts? The Bengals' and Ravens' championship odds slightly lengthened, but they're still among the favorites to win the conference. Baltimore went from +450 to +800 in two weeks, while the Bengals jumped from +750 to +1000.

As for the AFC North, oddsmakers aren't overreacting. The Bengals are the favorites to win the division at +185, with the Ravens trailing at +200. The Steelers sit at +325, and the 1-1 Browns are at +450.

There's a common thread with Cincinnati's and Baltimore's 0-2 starts: Both teams played the Chiefs, the back-to-back Super Bowl champions and favorites to win for a third consecutive year. Both also have an inexcusable loss as a massive home favorite.

The Bengals' offense, particularly Joe Burrow, looked significantly better against the Chiefs in Week 2 after an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Patriots. Cincinnati has started 0-2 in the last three seasons. Burrow is 1-9 in Weeks 1 and 2 in his career. However, the Bengals usually ascend as the year progresses.

A midseason spark lifted Cincinnati out of a hole the prior two seasons. If Week 2 was any indication, that win streak is coming. The Bengals play the Commanders, Panthers, and Giants in three of the next four weeks.

The Ravens took the crown for the most embarrassing loss of Week 2 after leading by 10 against the Raiders in the fourth quarter. Oddsmakers gave the Raiders a 4% chance of winning at that point, but Baltimore squandered the lead in an epic collapse.

The Ravens' self-inflicted wounds, lack of identity, and fourth-quarter woes reared its ugly head in a concerning loss. However, oddsmakers aren't bailing on Baltimore, which still has an MVP-caliber quarterback and enough surrounding talent to flip the season's script. Granted, the scene in Baltimore might get worse before it gets better, with the Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals as the Ravens' next three opponents.

Do oddsmakers believe in Carr, Saints?

The Saints have outscored their opponents 91-29 through two weeks and haven't trailed in 120 minutes of football. Dominating the Panthers in Week 1 didn't change people's tune of the Saints, who were +260 to win the division and +175 to make the playoffs before the season.

The Cowboys were 6.5-point home favorites against New Orleans in Week 2, signaling oddsmakers weren't buying the team's Week 1 win over one of the league's worst. That changed after the Saints decimated a favorite to win the NFC. Derek Carr carved up Dallas' supposedly elite defense, throwing for 243 yards and two touchdowns in a 44-19 win.

New Orleans is now the favorite to win the better-than-expected NFC South at +135. The 2-0 Buccaneers trail at +175. The Saints are -195 to make the playoffs, boosting their implied probability of earning a postseason spot from 36% in the preseason to 66% after the unexpected start.

The Saints' odds of winning the NFC significantly shrunk from +4000 to +1300, tied for the fifth-best in the conference.

The awards market also reflects New Orleans' impressive start. Carr opened the season at +20000 to win MVP and is now +3500. The 11-year veteran leads the NFL with a 142.4 passer rating. Baker Mayfield is second with a 129.1 passer rating.

Alvin Kamara's 115 rushing yards, 65 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns in Week 2 helped lift the Saints to a win. He skyrocketed from 100-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year to 30-1.

Finally, Saints coach Dennis Allen had the worst odds to win Coach of the Year at 60-1 and was the favorite to be the first coach fired this season at available betting markets. What a difference two weeks can make. Allen has the third-best odds to win Coach of the Year at 10-1.

Can New Orleans continue its ascension as a legitimate NFC threat behind a quarterback and defense that look among the NFL's best? If Week 3's odds are any indication, the answer is yes. The Saints are only a 2.5-point underdog in Week 3 against the Super Bowl-contending Eagles.

Before the season, less than 1% of Super Bowl bets were on the Saints, the ninth-fewest of any team, per theScore Bet and ESPN Bet. Since Sunday, 22% of Super Bowl tickets have been placed on New Orleans, the most of any team.

Watt, Hutchinson climb DPOY oddsboard

The Steelers are 2-0, but it's certainly not because of their offense. Pittsburgh has scored 31 points and has held opponents to 16 total points, the second-fewest in the NFL.

While the Steelers have plenty of defensive talent, T.J. Watt is their most impactful player. He's an exceptional pass-rusher who causes havoc for opposing offenses. Watt finds a way to break through despite being consistently double-teamed at the line of scrimmage. With the bulk of attention on Watt, other Pittsburgh pass-rushers have a direct line to the quarterback.

The edge rusher has two sacks this season and is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year at +425 after starting the campaign at +800.

Aidan Hutchinson significantly closed the gap with a 4.5-sack performance in Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers. The Lions' offense was responsible for losing, as Detroit's defense held Tampa Bay to 20 points.

Hutchinson leads the NFL with 5.5 sacks. The defensive end opened the season at +1600 to win Defensive Player of the Year but has the second-best odds at +450 after Sunday's showing. The two game-changing rushers should be award finalists when the season concludes.

Underdogs rejoice

Underdogs have run wild through the campaign's first two weeks. It's typical to see misplaced lines early in a season as teams put a sometimes unexpected product on the field, but then the market balances itself out. However, we rarely see big underdogs consistently win.

The largest underdog on the board won outright for the second consecutive week. In Week 1, the Patriots beat the Bengals as 7.5-point underdogs. In Week 2, the Raiders beat the Ravens as 8.5-point underdogs. Baltimore's spread received 69% of bets at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet. The Rams opened as the biggest underdog in Week 3 as a 7.5-point home dog against the 49ers.

Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread in Week 2, and seven won outright. Furthermore, underdogs of six or more points are 8-0 against the spread this season.

This could just be a fluky start. It's unlikely big underdogs will continue to win at that high of a rate.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.