Underdogs continue to roll: NFL Week 4 betting primer
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Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
There are some surprising 3-0 teams (like the Steelers and Vikings) and shocking 0-3 teams (like the Bengals), which means underdogs pounced through the first three weeks.
Stats back that up: Underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 14-2 against the spread (ATS) and 10-6 straight up. Further, 10 outright wins by 5.5-point or more underdogs is the most through Week 3 since 1974.
The even playing field and increased parity have led oddsmakers to assign shorter spreads than in years past. Eleven of Week 4's 16 games have a spread of four or less. Let's dive into them.
Thursday Night Football
- Both NFC East teams are 1-2 and 1-2 ATS.
- Were this game played in Week 2, the Cowboys would likely be a larger favorite.
- The Cowboys' defense has allowed the third-most points and fifth-most yards.
- Rookie wideout Malik Nabers has three touchdowns and 205 receiving yards over the last two games. His receiving prop is 71.5 against Dallas.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate
- The undefeated Steelers are also a perfect 3-0 ATS at the start of the Justin Fields era.
- Pittsburgh's allowed a league-low 26 total points, a large reason why this contest's total is under 40.
- Both teams' offenses operate similarly, but the Steelers' suffocating defense should have bettors feeling good about laying points.
- Malik Willis is 2-0 as the Packers' starting quarterback, but this line suggests Jordan Love will be back under center in Green Bay.
- Love practiced last week but was held out in Week 3 against the Titans and is listed as day-to-day.
- The Vikings are 3-0 ATS and straight up thanks to QB Sam Darnold's solid play and a defense allowing the second-fewest points and rushing yards per game. As a result, all three of their games have gone under the total.
- Packers running back Josh Jacobs is averaging 92.7 rushing yards per game, but his total against Minnesota is 57.5.
- The Vikings trounced the Texans in Week 3 but Houston should bounce back against an 0-3 Jaguars group that looks broken after a 37-point loss on Monday Night Football. The line moved 1.5 points in Houston's favor after Monday night.
- However, Houston hasn't covered a spread and divisional games tend to be closer.
- The Jaguars' problems start with Trevor Lawrence, who looks lost and uncomfortable in the pocket. His passing yards prop is 228.5 against Houston's sixth-best passing defense. He hasn't thrown for over 220 yards once this season.
- The two favorites to win the NFC South meet in a divisional clash.
- The Falcons have looked better since their opening-week loss to the Steelers, going 1-1 against the Eagles and Chiefs.
- After scoring a league-high 91 points in their first two games, the Saints only produced 12 in their Week 3 loss to the Eagles.
- The banged-up Rams, who are missing their top two receivers and multiple starting offensive linemen, pulled off a dramatic comeback win over the divisional rival 49ers in Week 3.
- L.A.'s defense has allowed the most total yards and fourth-most passing yards, which could bode well for a Bears offense that's struggled with rookie QB Caleb Williams.
- Williams' passing yards prop is 223.5, which he went over for the first time last week with 363 passing yards.
- Meanwhile, Matt Stafford's passing total is 213.5, which he's exceeded every game.
- This line feels short after the Buccaneers fell back to earth in a brutal home loss to the Broncos.
- But the Eagles' offense has struggled to score and they could be without star wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against Tampa Bay.
- Saquon Barkley's carried Philadelphia, leading the league in rushing yards. His rushing prop is 77.5, a mark he's flown past every game.
- Andy Dalton inserted some life into the Panthers, but they don't get to play the Raiders every week.
- The Bengals are as desperate as any team. It's rare to start 0-3 and make the postseason, but an 0-4 start would effectively end Cincinnati's playoff hopes.
- Joe Burrow returned to MVP form in the last two weeks, but the Bengals' defense can't stop a nosebleed.
- The Jets' defense should pose a major problem for Bo Nix, who had the best game of his NFL career in an upset win over the Bucs last Sunday.
- Aaron Rodgers appears to have found his groove after carving up a solid Patriots defense Thursday night.
- The Jets and Broncos each have a top-five passing defense. Rodgers' passing prop is 218.5 and Nix's is 186.5.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate
- This game has shootout potential given the state of the Commanders' defense and both teams' offenses. It's the slate's highest total.
- This spread moved 1.5 points in Washington's favor after Jayden Daniels' stellar showing against the Bengals on Monday.
- Daniels threw for 254 passing yards last week and 226 the week prior. His passing yards total is 216.5 versus Arizona.
- Kyler Murray faces his former coach Kliff Kingsbury, now Washington's offensive coordinator. Murray's passing yards total is 232.5.
- The 49ers are 10-point favorites over the lifeless Patriots despite being depleted with offensive injuries.
- New England brought Drake Maye in at the end of its loss versus the Jets but should have Jacoby Brissett under center against a tough defense on the road.
- This is perhaps the ugliest Week 4 matchup on paper, and the 36.5 total - the weekend's lowest - reflects that.
- The Raiders succumbed to a letdown spot in Week 3, losing to the Panthers at home after a huge road upset win in Baltimore in Week 2.
- The Browns lost to the Giants, considered one of the NFL's worst teams, at home in Week 3.
- This line suggests Chargers QB Justin Herbert will miss Week 4. Taylor Heinicke replaced Herbert when Herbert left last week's game with an ankle injury.
- The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up against the Chargers in their last six meetings but 3-3 ATS.
- L.A.'s defense has allowed the third-fewest points, but it's facing the NFL's best QB and won't have its usual offensive output without Herbert.
Sunday Night Football
- The Ravens avoided a 0-3 start by beating the Cowboys in Dallas, but Baltimore's fourth-quarter issues continue to haunt them.
- The Bills look like a Super Bowl contender and Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, but oddsmakers aren't ditching the Ravens or putting too much stock into Buffalo's 3-0 start.
Monday Night Football
- The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS, but it feels impossible to lay points with Will Levis, regardless of who's under center on the other side.
- The Titans are also 0-3 ATS and straight up. This is unquestionably the worst QB matchup of the week.