NFL betting primer: Will the 49ers pick up 1st divisional win in Seattle?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Here, we'll make the case why each team will cover the spread for the marquee games while providing the X-factors (how teams match up, as well as who to watch and potentially target in the player prop markets) that will ultimately decide the outcome.

Let's dive in.

Thursday Night Football

Case for the 49ers

• Brock Purdy is a perfect 4-0 in his career against the Seahawks. The narrowest margin of victory was eight points.
• He's also 8-2 versus NFC West opponents during the regular season, but both losses came this year.
• The 49ers are 10-5 against the spread in divisional games since 2022 (Purdy's rookie year), while the Seahawks are only 5-8 ATS.

Case for the Seahawks

• San Francisco is 0-2 ATS on the road this season.
• The Seahawks are 3-1 at home this year. Their narrowest margin of victory was six points in Week 1 over the Broncos.
• The last time Seattle lost back-to-back home games was December 2022.

X-factors

• The 49ers' defense will be the weakest unit on the field Sunday based on yards per play.
• San Francisco concedes 5.6 yards per play (20th in the league), while its offense averages 6.3 (second).
• On the other sideline, the Seahawks' offense averages 5.8 yards per play (ninth in the league), while their defense allows only five (seventh).
• Brandon Aiyuk had his first 50-plus-yard game this season in Week 5, catching eight balls for 147 yards. The Seahawks allow the seventh-fewest passing yards per contest (183). Aiyuk's receiving prop this week is 69.5.
• Geno Smith leads the league in passing yards, averaging 293.2 per game. However, the 49ers' defense allows the 12th-fewest passing yards per contest (197).

Best bet - 49ers (-3.5)

It's hard to envision San Francisco continuing to struggle against divisional foes, and the 49ers have dominated Seattle recently. This is the perfect bounce-back spot for Purdy and Co. to assert dominance in the NFC West.

Best prop - Geno Smith over 249.5 yards passing (-125)

Expect the Seahawks to trail early and lean heavily on the passing game. Smith has surpassed this total in four straight contests.

Sunday 9:30 a.m. (London game)

Case for the Jaguars

• Trevor Lawrence is 3-1 straight up in London games.
• The Jaguars are 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season.
• This spread suggests the Bears would be 4.5-point favorites if the game were played in Chicago, which feels high.

Case for the Bears

• The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS this season and 3-0 as favorites.
• Caleb Williams' passer rating has improved each game. There's a chance the market hasn't yet adjusted to the first overall pick's improved play.

X-factors

• The Jaguars have the league's worst defense based on DVOA. Chicago's offense will have its way with Jacksonville if it can sustain the same level of performance it had against the Panthers.
• Tank Bigsby is emerging as the Jaguars' lead back. He rushed for 101 yards on 13 carries (seven more than Travis Etienne) against the Colts. The Bears allow 120.8 rush yards per game (18th in the NFL).
• Williams has either passed for over 300 yards (twice) or under 175 (three times) to start his career. Jacksonville's defense gives up the most passing yards per game in the league (287.8). Williams' passing prop for Week 6 is set at 224.5.

Best bet - Jaguars +2.5 (-110)

While Chicago looks to have turned a corner, a trip to London can easily derail a team's momentum. The Jaguars have plenty of experience with overseas games, while this will be Williams' first. Take the points with the more experienced Jags in what should be a tight contest.

Best prop - Caleb Williams over 249.5 passing yards (+110)

It may take a quarter to get acclimated to the London environment, but this total is too low for Williams. He's thrown for over 300 yards in two of his past three games and is facing a Jaguars defense that allows a league-worst 287.8 passing yards per contest.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

Case for the Commanders

• The Commanders are the league's hottest team, leading the NFL in points per game with 31.
• Jayden Daniels has emerged as an MVP candidate while leading Washington to a 4-1 ATS record.
• The Commanders may be the only team that can keep up with the high-powered Ravens' offense.
• Washington is 2-0 on the road while scoring a combined 80 points.
• Underdogs of six-plus points are 16-2-2 ATS and 11-8 straight up.

Case for the Ravens

• The Commanders have had a weak schedule. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are better than any team Washington has faced so far.
• The Ravens are the league's second-best team based on DVOA. The Commanders are 10th.
• Baltimore has covered three straight games after being embarrassed at home by the Raiders.

X-factors

• Both teams rank within the top three in third-down conversion rate (Commanders are first, Ravens are third). Their defenses rank outside the top 20 in third-down conversions allowed.
• Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (572) and averages six per carry. The Commanders rank 31st in opponents' yards per rush (5.1).
• Daniels' passing prop is 226.5 yards, a number he's surpassed in three straight contests. His rushing prop is 51.5, which he's gone over only twice in five games.
• Jackson has very similar props, with his passing-yard total at 223.5 and rushing prop at 56.5. He went over that passing yardage in three of five games this season and over his rushing number twice.

Best bet - Commanders +6.5 (-110)

The Commanders have the firepower to keep it close with the Ravens. Daniels proved himself against a solid Browns defense last week. The Rookie of the Year favorite can turn this game into a shootout even if Washington's defense isn't up for the test Jackson presents.

Best prop - Jayden Daniels over 224.5 passing yards (-130)

The Ravens are conceding the second-most passing yards per game (280.2), and teams pass on Baltimore 67.22% of the time (second highest in the league). Daniels has gone over 224.5 in four straight contests and should do so again in a game with a total of 51.5.

Case for the Cardinals

• The Cardinals rely on a top-four rushing attack, averaging 156 yards per game.
• Arizona's defense came alive in its comeback win over the 49ers after some early-season struggles, holding San Francisco to zero second-half points.

Case for the Packers

• Arizona allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game (147). That's a good sign for the Packers, who have the NFL's third-best rushing attack (164 yards per contest).
• Even without Jordan Love for two weeks, Green Bay is 3-2 and averages the fourth-most yards per game (392).

X-factors

• In a tough road game where the Cardinals must control the time of possession, James Conner's rushing prop is 70.5. He's gone over that mark in three of the last four contests.
• Josh Jacobs has the league's fourth-most rushing yards (402). His rushing yards prop against Arizona's porous run defense is 69.5, which he's gone over in three of his five games.

Best bet - Cardinals +5.5 (-110)

Aside from a blowout loss to Washington, the Cardinals have been competitive in every game while relying on a steady rushing attack. They're getting too many points against Love, who's thrown four interceptions and has a completion percentage below 60% since he returned from injury two weeks ago.

Best prop - Jordan Love over 0.5 interceptions (-135)

As mentioned, Love has been a turnover machine since returning from injury. The Cardinals have four picks in five games. Even at this long of a price, it's worth a wager on Love tossing it to an Arizona defender.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate

Case for the Chargers

• The Chargers are coming off a bye, which means Justin Herbert had extra time to rest an ankle injury that hampered him in his last two games.
• Los Angeles' defense has held opponents to 12 points per game, the NFL's best mark.
• The under has hit in all four of the Chargers' contests, while the under is 3-2 in Broncos games.

Case for the Broncos

• The Broncos are 4-1 ATS, covering and winning their last three games.
• Denver has the NFL's second-best scoring defense (allowing 14.6 points per game) and fifth-worst total offense (270 yards per contest). As a result, this game has the lowest total of the weekend at 35.5.
• The Chargers are one of the few teams with a worse scoring offense than the Broncos. Los Angeles is second to last in yards per game (263).

X-factors

• Bo Nix has had some impressive highs followed by ugly lows. However, he hasn't thrown a pick in the last three weeks.
• Nix threw for 60 yards and completed less than 50% of his passes the last time he played a defense as tough as the Chargers' (Week 4 against the Jets). His passing total for this week is 199.5, and he's -135 to throw a pick.
• The Chargers' offensive line hasn't properly protected Herbert, who hasn't thrown for over 200 yards once. The Broncos have the third-most sacks (19) in the NFL.
• With limited playmakers on the perimeter, Herbert's top target is rookie wideout Ladd McConkey. His receiving prop is 49.5, which he's exceeded just once. McConkey has two touchdowns on the year and is +250 to find the end zone Sunday.

Best bet - Chargers -3 (-110)

The bye week arrived at the perfect time to allow the Chargers' coaching staff to find solutions for the team's offensive line and receiving corps. Plus, Herbert's had time to recover from an ankle injury. Nix has had his moments, but we've seen him struggle against defenses as dominant as the Chargers'.

Best prop - Justin Herbert over 199.5 passing yards (+115)

Herbert hasn't thrown for 200 yards once this season, and he's playing one of the league's best passing defenses. So why are we targeting the over? Los Angeles needs Herbert to throw the ball a ton to carry the offense. He hasn't attempted 30 passing attempts, but expect that to change after a bye week.

Case for the Lions

• The Lions are 3-1 ATS.
• Detroit is coming off a bye, while the Cowboys escaped Pittsburgh with a narrow win Sunday night. The Lions are 10-2 ATS with a rest advantage since Jared Goff arrived in 2021, the NFL's best mark.
• Detroit averages the third-most yards per game (397) and seventh-most points per contest (26). The Lions have a top-six rushing attack (151 yards per game) and are facing a bottom-tier rushing defense.

Case for the Cowboys

• The Cowboys are 8-4-1 ATS as a home underdog since Dak Prescott was drafted in 2016, with seven outright wins.
• Dallas was 8-0 straight up at home and 6-3 ATS in 2023. The team is 0-2 straight up and ATS at home this season.
• The Cowboys average the second-most passing yards per game (271), while the Lions allow the sixth most (258).

X-factors

• A 52.5 total is tied for the highest for Week 6's slate. The over has hit in just one of Detroit's four games and is 0-3 in Lions games when the total is at least 50.
• It's not hard to see why the total is so high. The Lions rank seventh in points per game (26), while the largely underachieving Cowboys offense is 15th (23.4).
• The Lions have a funnel defense. Teams throw against them 67.06% of the time (third-highest rate in the league) and call running plays only 32.94% of the time (third-lowest rate).
• That fits perfectly for what the Cowboys do on offense. Dallas calls the fourth-most passing plays (63.98%) and fourth-fewest running plays (36.02%).
• Dak Prescott's passing prop is set for 274.5 (he's gone over this number in three of five games). The Lions give up 258.3 yards through the air per game, which ranks 27th in the league.

Best bet - Lions -3 (-110)

The Lions are the more talented team and have a claim as the NFL's best offense. The Cowboys allowed 28 points to the Ravens and 44 to the Saints. They won't keep pace with Detroit in another home loss.

Best prop - Dak Prescott over 37.5 pass attempts (-105)

Dallas loves to throw the ball. Prescott averages 38.2 pass attempts per game and has gone over this number in three of his five contests. Assuming the Cowboys are trailing, Prescott will have to drop back frequently.