Can a new coach give Jets an edge at home? MNF betting preview

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Bills @ Jets (+1) o/u 40.5

There's no shortage of storylines surrounding AFC East rivals the Jets (2-3) and the Bills (3-2). They both enter Monday Night Football on a two-game losing streak, and the winner will take first place in the division.

The Jets made drastic changes after their offensive woes yielded a disappointing start to the season. They fired head coach Robert Saleh last week and stripped offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett of play-calling duties, although Hackett remains on staff under interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich.

Despite featuring a Hall of Fame quarterback, New York's unimaginative offense has struggled to score. Aaron Rodgers deserves as much blame as anyone for the unit's failures. The season's far from over, but age and past injuries might be catching up to the all-time great.

In Buffalo, Josh Allen has stumbled without reliable weapons on the outside. Allen threw for 180 and 131 yards, respectively, in the Bills' last two losses to the Ravens and Texans. He completed less than 60% of his passes in each loss. The Jets' pass rush and defense are the best Allen has seen this season, so Buffalo's offense might get worse before it gets better.

Key trends

• Teams that replace their coach midseason are 10-1 ATS in their first game with the interim coach since 2020, per ESPN Stats and Info.
• The Bills are 27-12 straight up and 20-17-2 ATS in divisional games since drafting Allen in 2018.
• Buffalo is 14-11-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2018.
• Rodgers is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career.
• Eight of the last 10 matchups between the Jets and Bills have gone under the total.
• Sunday was a day of chalk; road favorites were 8-0 straight up and ATS in Week 6.

Insights

Public bettors and sharp bettors disagree about Monday night's result. The public expects the Bills to win a divisional battle and avoid a three-game losing streak. However, there's significantly more money on the Jets, which has moved the line down in their favor from three to one.

Notably, less than 50% of bets are on the under (the public loves to bet overs), but 65% of the handle (money wagered) is on the under.

Best bet - Jets +1

On some level, Jets players must take accountability for the failings that led to coaching changes. Teams often play well in the first game under an interim coach for that reason.

Buffalo's offense struggled the last two weeks against elite defenses; Allen was 9-for-30 against Houston. The Jets allow the second-fewest passing yards, so more challenges await Allen. Meanwhile, New York should get its offense on track against an average pass defense and a lousy run defense. The Bills are desperate after two straight losses, but this is a good spot to back the Jets at home.

Players to watch

Josh Allen under 199.5 passing yards (-110)

A quarterback hasn't eclipsed 200 passing yards against the Jets this season since Brock Purdy in Week 1. That doesn't bode well for Allen, who lacks reliable pass-catchers or perimeter playmakers. Buffalo must lean on its rushing attack, which includes Allen's legs.

Breece Hall over 59.5 rushing yards (-110)

Hall struggled the last two weeks, racking up 19 carries for 27 yards. But the Jets must establish their rushing attack to open up the passing game. They have a good matchup on the ground against the Bills, who allow a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry. Expect New York to increase Hall's load and have success against Buffalo.

Garrett Wilson over 59.5 receiving yards (-130)

Wilson and Rodgers haven't developed the chemistry many expected, but Rodgers has made an effort to feed him the ball. Wilson had 23 targets and 13 receptions for 101 yards last week. That should continue against a mediocre Bills defense. Although New York rarely threw the ball downfield with Hackett making the decisions, that could change with a new play-caller.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.