NFL betting primer: Super Bowl rematch highlights best of Week 7

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The Week 7 slate is loaded with intriguing games, including a rematch of last year's Super Bowl and a battle between two of the NFL's highest-ranked teams.

Let's waste no time and get straight to our Week 7 betting primer previewing these six games:

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DET @ MIN | HOU @ GB | SEA @ ATL | PHI @ NYG | KC @ SF | NYJ @ PIT

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

It's a battle for NFC North supremacy between the defending champion Lions and undefeated Vikings. Detroit begins life without Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson, while the surprise Vikings will see if Sam Darnold's career revitalization survived their bye week.

Case for the Lions

• Since Dan Campbell took over the Lions in 2021, they're 41-18 (69.5%) against the spread (ATS), 22-10 ATS as underdogs, and 20-9 ATS on the road.
• Detroit is 13-5 against divisional opponents over that same span.
• The Lions are the NFL's second-best team based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and the most balanced team, with the offense and defense both ranked fourth.

Case for the Vikings

• The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season and are one of two remaining undefeated teams.
• They're the No. 1 team based on DVOA and have the NFL's best defense.
• Hutchinson - arguably the league's best defender - is out for the season with a fractured leg. There's a chance this spread isn't factoring in his absence enough.

X-factors

• Hutchinson was leading the NFL in pressures by a wide margin, which was a big reason why teams converted third downs against the Lions at such a low rate (29.63%, second-lowest in the league). The Lions will need someone to step up in his place or their fourth-ranked defense will have a significant hole.
• The Vikings have one of the league's best run defenses, giving up only 67.2 yards on the ground per game. The Lions counter with a two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, whose rushing props are both set at 49.5.
• Justin Jefferson has torched the Lions in his career, averaging 7.8 catches and 134.1 yards in eight games. Jefferson's yardage prop for Week 7 is 89.5 with the over having -135 odds.

Best bet - Lions +2.5

Betting on Campbell's Lions has proved to be very profitable. Detroit is playing at an extremely high level this year, and many consider the team to be the best in the league, so getting points is a nice bonus regardless of the opponent.

Best prop - Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards (+110)

Jefferson's hit triple-digit receiving yards in six of eight career games against Detroit. The Lions' defense is good but can be attacked through the air; they give up the fifth-most passing yards per contest (246.2), and teams throw on them 68.45% of the time (second-highest rate in the league).

Dare we say Super Bowl preview? It may be a long shot, but the 5-1 Texans picked up where they left off last season, and Jordan Love's Packers, who are off to a solid 4-2 start of their own, are in need of a win to keep pace with a stacked NFC North.

Case for the Texans

• C.J. Stroud is 7-4 ATS as an underdog in his career.
• The Texans are sixth in DVOA, while the Packers are eighth. However, this line suggests the Packers are a slightly better team unless the market gives Lambeau Field a larger home-field advantage than average.
• The Packers only beat the Colts, Titans, Rams, and Cardinals this year and are 0-2 against playoff-contending teams (Eagles, Vikings).

Case for the Packers

• Since hiring Matt LaFleur in 2019, the Packers hold the best at-home ATS record in the NFL at 30-17. They're also 24-15 as home favorites under LaFleur.
• Love returned from injury in Week 4, leading the Packers' offense to 87 points in three games. The Texans' defense has been very good this season (second in defensive DVOA) but conceded 243 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to Drake Maye in his first start last week. The Texans are allowing 27.3 points per game on the road.

X-factors

• The Packers are averaging the second-most rushing yards per game (167.2), while the Texans have been more susceptible to the run than the pass this season, ranking 13th against the run and fourth against the pass in yards per contest. Josh Jacobs, whose rushing prop is 59.5, could be the difference-maker for the Packers.
• On the other side, the Texans will look to exploit Green Bay's porous secondary. The Packers give up the eighth-most passing yards per game (228.7). Stroud is averaging 262.8, and his passing prop is set at 249.5.

Best bet - Packers -2.5

While we'd like the weather to be a factor when we back the Packers at Lambeau, it's supposed to be beautiful in Green Bay on Sunday. Still, we'll take Love to cover 2.5 points. It's impossible to ignore the Packers' ATS record at home, and the Texans are playing their second consecutive road game.

Best prop - Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions (-140)

Diggs has taken on a much larger role in the Texans' passing game with Nico Collins out of the lineup. He's had over a 21% target share in four straight contests, seen 15 targets combined in his last two games, and caught six or more balls in three of his past four.

While it may not initially jump off the page, this tilt between the Falcons and Seahawks has the makings of a shootout, with one of the highest totals of the week. Both teams are still trying to figure out where they stand within the NFC, making this a great measuring-stick spot for both sides.

Case for the Seahawks

• It's tough to come up with a case for the Seahawks, losers of three straight, including back-to-back at home. Now, Seattle is traveling east for a 1 p.m. ET matchup with a Falcons team starting to roll.

Case for the Falcons

• The Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS, one of the league's worst records, and 0-2 as underdogs.
• The Falcons are the 10th-best team in the NFL based on DVOA and boast the league's sixth-best offense. Seattle is ranked 14th and trending in the wrong direction.

X-factors

• The Seahawks have wound up in game scripts forcing them to throw the ball more than any other team (68.35% of plays). Geno Smith leads the league with 1,778 passing yards. The Falcons only give up 195 yards per contest (10th fewest). Smith's passing prop is set at 249.5.
• Bijan Robinson finally had his breakout game this season, scoring twice last week against the Panthers. He's yet to eclipse 100 yards on the ground, but Seattle has one of the worst rush defenses, giving up 144.7 rushing yards per game. Robinson's rushing prop is set at 59.5.

Best bet - Falcons -2.5

This spread would make more sense if this game were played two or three weeks ago, but these teams are heading in different directions. The Falcons are much better than the Seahawks, but the spread doesn't reflect that. Take the Falcons to win this by at least a field goal.

Best prop - Bijan Robinson over 91.5 rush + rec. yards

There's a decent chance Robinson clears 91.5 on the ground alone, but we'll take the added insurance he catches a handful of passes from Kirk Cousins to clear this total with ease.

Here's a game Saquon Barkley's had circled on his calendar ever since he inked his deal with the Eagles. But there's even more to this game than revenge. The Eagles haven't looked great this year and haven't won back-to-back games. They need a big divisional win to keep pace with the Commanders, and the Giants always seem to put up a good fight against divisional foes.

Case for the Eagles

• The Eagles are 12-7 straight up against divisional opponents since 2021, the year Jalen Hurts took over as full-time starter.
• On paper, the Eagles are the better team, and covering only three points doesn't seem like much.

Case for the Giants

• The Eagles are one of the worst teams against the spread over the past few years; they're 19-22-2 since 2022 and 5-10-1 as road favorites over that same timeframe.
• The Giants are 9-6 against divisional opponents and 9-5-1 as home underdogs since 2022.

X-factors

• Barkley will be looking for revenge - and should get it. The Giants allow 5.2 yards per carry (31st in the league), and his odds of scoring a touchdown are -185 (64.9% implied probability).
• Giants rookie wideout Malik Nabers should be back to provide a boost to the offense, which only mustered seven points against the Bengals last week. Nabers is seventh in the league in receptions despite missing two games and is the Giants' only offensive weapon who can keep up with the Eagles' firepower.

Best bet - Giants +3

We'll play the numbers on this one and back the home underdog in a divisional game (Giants) against a team that has historically struggled to cover spreads as a road favorite (Eagles).

Philadelphia isn't playing inspiring football, while New York has shown fight that a lot of people didn't expect to see this season.

Best prop - Saquon Barkley 70+ rushing yards + anytime TD scorer (+115)

Let's go with a mini Barkley parlay in his first game against his former team. Barkley's surpassed 70 yards in four of his five appearances this season, and you know the Eagles will want to make sure their new running back punches one in.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

The Super Bowl rematch is far and away the game of the week. The undefeated - and beat up - Chiefs head to San Francisco to take on the 3-3 49ers, who haven't looked like themselves this year. Will the Chiefs continue to roll? Or will the 49ers remind the league they are still the team to beat in the NFC?

Case for the Chiefs

• Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
• Andy Reid is 21-4 straight up following his team's bye week and 24-6 since 2018 (Mahomes' rookie year) with the rest advantage.

Case for the 49ers

• The 49ers have the second-best home record since 2022 (19-5).
• Despite being 5-0, the Chiefs haven't looked like their dominant selves. Four of their five wins have been by one score, and they haven't played a team of the 49ers' caliber since their Week 1 win over the Ravens.

X-factors

• Travis Kelce has 16 catches for 159 yards since Rashee Rice went down with an injury. In his five career games against San Francisco, Kelce's averaged 6.2 receptions and 72.6 yards. His receiving total for Week 7 is 59.5 (over is -135), and his reception total is 5.5 (over is -145).
• The Chiefs have an incredible run defense, and 49ers starter Jordan Mason is banged up, so Brock Purdy will likely need to outplay Mahomes for San Francisco to have a chance. Purdy is putting together another MVP-caliber season (+1300) despite the 49ers' 3-3 record.

Best bet - Chiefs +1.5

Taking Mahomes when he's an underdog should be a rule when betting on the NFL. The numbers speak for themselves. Maybe it won't work this week in a largely meaningless October game for the Chiefs, but in the long run, you'll win money.

Best prop - Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions (-145)

You have to pay the price to get over 5.5, and if you can find over 6.5 in the market at plus money, that may be the better play. Either way, the Chiefs need Kelce in Rice's absence. The future Hall of Famer is now the focal point of Kansas City's offense and should haul in at least six balls for a third straight game.

Sunday Night Football

The circus that is the Jets heads to Pittsburgh this week with a brand-new act: Davante Adams. New York traded for Aaron Rodgers' favorite target this week in hopes of turning around a season heading toward disappointment. The Steelers answered with a change at quarterback, electing to go with Russell Wilson over Justin Fields.

Case for the Jets

• They get to game plan for Wilson rather than Fields. If Wilson is the same quarterback he was over the last couple of seasons in Denver, the Jets' defense should have an easy time and this spread is far too low.

Case for the Steelers

• The Steelers are 4-2 ATS this season with a top-10 defense, per DVOA.
• Pittsburgh has the league's best ATS record (58-35-5) as an underdog since hiring Mike Tomlin in 2007. That cover percentage increases to 75% (18-6-3) when an underdog at home.

X-factors

• How well will Adams fit into the Jets' offense? It's not easy to integrate such a key piece midseason, but Adams has tons of experience with Rodgers to make this a smooth transition. However, there's a chance Adams makes the Jets' offense one-dimensional and easy for teams to defend.
• Wilson looks to be getting his first start as a Steeler despite Fields leading the team to a 4-2 record. It will be interesting to see how different this offense looks with Wilson at the helm. It ranked a respectable 14th per DVOA with Fields.

Best bet - Jets -2

It's hard to have faith in Wilson at this point in his career. He showed very little in Denver and is now another year older (and has already dealt with an injury). The move to bench Fields could come back to bite the Steelers when they're battling for a wild-card spot.

Best prop - Aaron Rodgers over 224.5 passing yards

There's no doubt Rodgers will want to show off Sunday night, especially with Adams running routes for him again. Rodgers has surpassed this total in four straight games and now faces a Pittsburgh defense that's better at stopping the run than the pass.