NFL Week 8 betting primer: How will teams perform as injuries pile up?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Injuries continue to mount across the NFL, knocking out star players and significantly impacting point spreads. Being on the right side of a spread this week will likely be the result of correctly predicting how backups perform in the place of injured starters.

Below, we'll preview six marquee matchups in Week 8, four of them with key injuries to monitor as kickoff approaches.

Jump to: IND @ HOU | ATL @ TB | PHI @ CIN | BUF @ SEA | CHI @ WAS | DAL @ SF

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

The Colts head into Houston looking for a win to pull them level with the Texans atop the AFC South at 5-3. Anthony Richardson returned from injury last week, setting up an intriguing matchup between two of last year's top three quarterbacks taken in the draft.

Case for the Colts

• The Colts are 6-1 ATS this season, a sign they've been undervalued all year.
• They're also 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 3-0 ATS versus divisional opponents.
• Indianapolis lost by only two points to Houston in Week 1.

Case for the Texans

• The Texans are 7-1 straight up following a loss since the start of last year - C.J. Stroud's rookie season.
• They're seventh in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), compared to 19th for the Colts. This spread means Houston would be roughly a four-point favorite if this game were played at a neutral site, which feels short.
• The Texans covered three straight games after going 0-3-1 ATS to open the season, suggesting they've turned things around after a sluggish start.

X-factors

• The Colts were victorious over the Dolphins last week, but no thanks to Richardson. The second-year quarterback completed only 10 of 29 passes for 129 yards (he did rush for 56 yards) and lost a fumble. He'll need to step up as a dual-threat or else the Colts have no shot. Richardson's passing prop is set at 186.5.
• The Colts' defense gives up 159.9 yards per game (second-most in the league). In three games with at least 10 carries, Joe Mixon has surpassed 100 yards every time. Mixon's rushing prop is set at 79.5.

Best bet - Texans -5

These two teams are simply in different classes. The Texans are built to make a championship run with one of the league's best defenses and an offense ready to break out. Meanwhile, the Colts are inconsistent on offense, and their defense is the 10th-worst based on DVOA.

Best prop - Joe Mixon over 79.5 rushing yards (+100)

Mixon should have no issue finding holes in the Colts' front seven, which is giving up 4.6 yards per rush attempt. It's expected the Texans will be up in this game and lean on Mixon to kill the clock. If he sees 20 carries in this contest, rushing for over 80 yards should be a breeze.

A depleted Buccaneers squad hosts the Falcons with the top spot in the NFC South on the line. This spread originally opened with the Bucs as three-point favorites, but after Mike Evans and Chris Godwin got hurt on Monday night, the line has swung heavily in the Falcons' favor.

Case for the Falcons

• The Falcons beat the Bucs 36-30 at home three weeks ago in a game Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards.
• Losing two star wide receivers may be too much to overcome for a Bucs offense that relies heavily on the passing game.

Case for the Buccaneers

• Tampa Bay is the better team per DVOA, but that doesn't factor in the loss of Evans and Godwin.
• A nearly six-point swing in the spread may be an overreaction for injuries to a non-quarterback.

X-factors

• Atlanta has one of the worst defenses in the league, especially against the run. The Falcons concede 137 yards on the ground (ninth-most in the NFL), while the Buccaneers average 135 rushing yards per game (eighth-most).
• The Bucs will need someone to step up in the absence of Godwin and Evans. Rookie Jalen McMillan could be the player to slide seamlessly into Godwin's slot role. He was a member of a loaded Washington Huskies offense last year that included Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, and Ja'Lynn Polk.

Best bet - Buccaneers +2.5

This spread may continue to drift in the Falcons' favor, so waiting until Sunday morning could be the play. There's a lot of negative buzz around Tampa at the moment, but its offense should still be able to move the ball against Atlanta's porous defense. Take the points with the home side in what should be a tight divisional matchup.

Best prop - Rachaad White over 39.5 rushing yards (-115)

Rachaad White has surpassed this total in three straight games and will be needed more than ever against the Falcons. The Bucs are committed to a timeshare in the backfield, but rookie Bucky Irving is dealing with a toe injury that could give White more opportunities.

It's a battle between two of the last three Super Bowl finalists. While the 4-2 Eagles may not be as desperate as the 3-4 Bengals, both teams badly need this win. The Eagles need to make up ground on the division-leading Commanders, while the Bengals would love to get back to .500 after starting the season 1-4.

Case for the Eagles

• The Eagles beat up on the Giants last week, but it's hard to take much away from a game New York failed to show up for.
• Philadelphia still needs to prove that it deserves to be considered one of the better teams in the league, and recent wins over the Giants, Browns, and Saints don't do that.

Case for the Bengals

• This spread suggests these two teams are evenly matched, but DVOA has the Bengals (12th) considerably higher than the Eagles (18th).
• Since Joe Burrow's rookie year (2020), the Bengals have the third-best cover rate as favorites.
• The Eagles are 5-9 ATS as an underdog since 2021, the second-worst cover rate in the NFL.

X-factors

• The Bengals' success will come down to their ability to pass on the Eagles' defense. The last competent quarterback the Eagles faced was Baker Mayfield, who threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns. Burrow's tossed 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions this season while averaging 251.3 yards per game.
• The Eagles haven't been forced to throw the ball recently. Hurts hasn't completed more than 20 passes in three straight games. Assuming the Bengals can put up points, Hurts & Co. may have to pass far more frequently than their current 48.72% pass rate, the third-lowest in the league.

Best bet - Bengals -3

The Bengals should be able to have their way with the Eagles' secondary. If Burrow can connect early with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, they'll force the Eagles into a pass-heavy game script, which isn't how they want to run their offense.

The Bengals also haven't won at home yet this season. We're not saying they're due, but if any team is due for a home victory, it's Cincinnati.

Best prop - Joe Burrow over 274.5 passing yards (+125)

Burrow has only passed for over 274.5 yards twice this season, but the two games he did were shootouts against good competition (Ravens and Commanders).

While they haven't always proved it this season, the Eagles belong in the conversation with those two teams and should be able to put up points against the Bengals. In games where Burrow's been forced to pass, he's thrived.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET

The Bills head to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks in a game with shootout potential. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in average points per game while leading their respective divisions.

Case for the Bills

• The Bills are 5-2 ATS this season and a perfect 4-0 as a favorite.
• They rank fifth in DVOA thanks to the league's second-best offense.

Case for the Seahawks

• Seattle picked up an impressive road victory over the Falcons last week after losing back-to-back games at home.
• This line suggests the Seahawks would be seven-point underdogs if this game were played in Buffalo, which feels like a big number.

X-factors

• Seattle could be without DK Metcalf, meaning both Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will have to step up. The Seahawks throw the ball 66.52% of their plays, the most in the NFL.
• Amari Cooper didn't run many routes in his first game with the Bills, but he was effective in his 12 routes. He caught four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown, and his presence gives Josh Allen a No. 1 receiver the team's been missing since Stefon Diggs was traded.

Best bet - Seahawks +3

The spread feels too big in a game the Seahawks can win outright. Yes, Buffalo is the better team, but having to lay three points in a tough road game is a big ask.

Best prop - Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD scorer (+165)

We'll move forward under the assumption that Metcalf is out. Smith-Njigba has proven he can dominate targets in the Seahawks' offense with games of 16, 12, and nine targets. He's only found the end zone once this season, but in a game where the Seahawks will be forced to throw, he should see plenty of action with a good chance of crossing the goal line.

Jayden Daniels will likely miss this game with a rib injury, robbing us of an epic showdown between the top two picks in the 2024 draft. The Bears as three-point favorites is a line that suggests Marcus Mariota will be under center for the Commanders.

Case for the Bears

• Caleb Williams has improved in every game he's played this season, leading the Bears to three straight wins. If he keeps progressing, this line is too short.
• The Bears are 4-2 ATS this season and have covered their last three games, indicating that Williams is improving faster than the market is reacting.

Case for the Commanders

• The Commanders rank sixth in DVOA for the season, but the loss of Daniels can't be overstated. Elite quarterbacks are worth approximately six points toward a spread (also depends on the quality of the backup), meaning if Daniels were playing, the Commanders would be roughly 2.5-point favorites at home.
• Mariota played well in place of Daniels last week, and there could be a buyback opportunity on the overreaction after this line originally opened with the Bears as one-point favorites.

X-factors

• This game, more than most, will come down to quarterback play. If Williams continues to improve, the line is too short. But if Mariota plays like a mid-level NFL starter, the Commanders are getting too many points.
• With Daniels out of the game, the Bears' defense is the best unit in this contest, ranking seventh in DVOA. The Bears are limiting teams to only 112 yards on the ground per game (11th-best) and only 180 passing yards per game (seventh-best).

Best bet - Commanders +3

Perhaps putting faith in Mariota will be a mistake, but teams often rally behind backup quarterbacks. Expect the Commanders' defense to step up and make Williams' day as difficult as possible.

Best prop - Caleb Williams over 224.5 (-120)

Williams threw for over 224.5 yards in three of his last four games, two of which he topped 300 yards. He's continuously improving and now faces a Commanders defense that can be attacked through the air. Even though Daniels won't be playing, you know Williams will want to prove he deserved to be the No. 1 pick in front of the Washington crowd.

Sunday Night Football

It's a classic NFC duel on Sunday Night Football with the banged-up 49ers hosting the Cowboys, who are coming off their bye. San Francisco will be without Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, while Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are listed as questionable.

Case for the Cowboys

• Since 2016 (Dak Prescott's rookie season) the Cowboys have the best ATS record with the rest advantage. They're 23-8 (74.2% cover rate).
• Dallas is 2-4 ATS this season, but the only two games it's covered were as a road underdog.

Case for the 49ers

• The 49ers are ninth in DVOA compared to the Cowboys at 23, the largest gap of the games we've covered. Yet, the 49ers are only four-point favorites at home. There's a chance the market is overreacting to the 49ers' injuries.
• San Francisco can't afford another loss, especially at home. The team is 3-4, and desperation is starting to sink in.

X-factors

• The 49ers will have to rely on Jordan Mason to carry the offensive burden with so many key injuries to pass-catchers. Meanwhile, the Cowboys can't stop the run, conceding the sixth-most rushing yards per game (143.2). Mason's odds to rush for 80 or more yards are -105.
• Dallas calls pass plays at the second-highest rate in the NFL (65.63%), and Prescott is averaging 267 yards per game. The 49ers' defense is really good, but if there's an area to attack them, it's through the air.

Best bet - Cowboys +4

There are plenty of question marks surrounding this game, especially on the 49ers' side of the ball. Assuming Samuel and Kittle are both out, going with the Cowboys and the points seems like the better option. Brock Purdy has been great this season, but playing without his top four offensive playmakers may be too much to overcome.

Best prop - CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards (-105)

CeeDee Lamb hasn't topped 100 yards receiving yet this season, but he's been very consistent. The fewest yards he's earned in a game was 61 in Week 1, while his high was 98 in Week 4 against the Giants. He's surpassed 80 yards in three of his past five games - and what better time to break out than in a marquee NFC matchup on Sunday Night Football?