Hail Mary drastically changes playoff chances of Commanders, Bears

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The Commanders' last-second Hail Mary against the Bears - one of the most improbable plays you'll witness on a football field - drastically changed both teams' chances of making the playoffs.

The stunning victory moved the Commanders to 6-2 and kept them atop the NFC East. They're now -340 to make the playoffs (77.3% implied probability) and +130 (43.5% implied probability) to win their division.

Had Tyrique Stevenson not perfectly tipped Jayden Daniels' pass to an uncovered Noah Brown, oddsmakers would have priced the Commanders to be -130 to make the playoffs and +225 to win their division.

One miraculous play increased Washington's chances of making the playoffs by 20.8%.

The play also helped Daniels fly up the MVP oddsboard. He was +3500 before Sunday's game, as it was uncertain whether he would play. The Commanders rookie is now +1000 to win MVP and the clear-cut favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at -450 (81.8% implied probability).

For the Bears, their crushing loss dropped them to 4-3 and put them in the basement of a stout NFC North division. The Bears' win probability was over 95% in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss, according to Adam Hoge of CHGO Sports, but they gave it all away with zeroes on the clock.

Chicago is now +300 to make the playoffs (25% implied probability) and +2000 to win its division. Had the Bears won, oddsmakers would have priced them to make the playoffs at +115 and +1000 to win the NFC North.

Their loss hurt their playoff chances by 21.5%.

The Commanders will look to keep the momentum going in Week 9 against the Giants, while the Bears stay on the road to take on the Cardinals in Arizona.