The NFC-leading Lions might be for real. Really
The NFL's forced-parity era has gotten people used to the fact that previously troubled franchises sometimes become quite good. The New Orleans Saints won a Super Bowl. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, once famous for their Creamsicle ineptitude, did it twice. The Carolina Panthers even made it there a couple of times. The Panthers!
But, still: The Detroit Lions, Super Bowl favorites? Does not compute.
I am, admittedly, playing fast and loose with the word "favorite." The Kansas City Chiefs still exist and remain the favorites in both the Vegas sense and in the minds of most fans as long as Patrick Mahomes remains upright.
But the Lions are 6-1 and on a tremendous heater. Three of their last four games were blowout wins. The fourth was a road victory over Minnesota, which was clearly the best team in the NFC at the time - and they'd spotted the Vikings a 10-point lead. This weekend, the Lions visit Green Bay for a matchup against their usual divisional bully, giving them a chance to widen their lead in the NFC North - the league's best division by some distance.
And again, it is fair to ask: Really? The Lions?
The Lions' rise is particularly fun because it offers hope to fans of sad-sack franchises everywhere. This is a team that has never been to the Super Bowl and whose all-time leading running back and receiver both retired early. Their winningest coach, Wayne Fontes, has a losing record. And they didn't turn things around by stumbling on a generational quarterback talent with a late-round pick or benefiting from a hilariously lopsided trade with, say, the Cleveland Browns.
They just steadily built a deep roster, hired a good coaching staff, and made a few particularly shrewd moves.
The most obvious of those was acquiring quarterback Jared Goff. He's hardly the first quarterback to become more successful with his second team, but the Goff situation is unique because he's a former first overall pick who was considered, perhaps unfairly, something of a bust. He made a Super Bowl with Sean McVay's Los Angeles Rams, but Bill Belichick's devious schemes put him in a blender, and it eventually seemed like Goff would never be a true superstar at the position. He could effectively pilot a talented offense, but his teams had a ceiling. McVay himself apparently reached that conclusion before trading Goff and three draft picks to the Lions for Matthew Stafford after the 2020 season.
Stafford and the Rams immediately won a Super Bowl, so it's not like McVay didn't know what he was doing, but Goff has continued to improve in Detroit and presently guides the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. He's thrown 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions over his last four games. His numbers would be even gaudier if the Lions didn't also have an excellent run game featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery behind a stellar offensive line. Coordinator Ben Johnson schemes up an attack that can move the ball in a variety of ways, making it harder for opponents to key on any single element.
The defense is solid, and although the loss of edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson to injury was a big blow, the Lions are 2-0 since he was hurt against the Cowboys.
The other defining characteristic of this Detroit team - which makes it enjoyable for neutral observers - is that head coach Dan Campbell is a big maniac. He is one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL on fourth down, embracing the modern coaching philosophy that eschews certain punts and field-goal attempts that used to be automatic.
Critics have occasionally ripped Campbell for this, accusing him of being a nerd beholden to his calculator - which is a hilarious line of argument about a former NFL tight end who still looks like he could wrestle a bear to a draw at worst.
A couple of late fourth-down gambles cost the Lions in last year's NFC Championship Game, helping the San Francisco 49ers come back from a 17-point halftime deficit, but Campbell said he didn't regret the decisions. (One of the fourth-down calls resulted in a dropped pass; if the receiver held on, Campbell would have been applauded for sticking with his typical gutsy approach.)
This is essentially the kind of offense that the analytically inclined have spent years hoping someone would run: Push the ball downfield aggressively and don't settle for field goals (or punts) unless you absolutely have to. Seven points is more than three, etc. It's just funny that it took a hulking former player to fully commit to what the spreadsheets have suggested all along.
The playoffs remain well off in the distance. Campbell and the Lions have a lot of work to do between now and then, beginning at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Win that one and they'll hold early tiebreakers over both the Packers and Vikings in the division, also putting them on the inside track for the NFC's top seed.
The road to the Super Bowl going through Detroit? Imagine.
Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.