What to expect from McCaffrey's much-anticipated season debut
Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
The backbone of the 49ers' offense is back. Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his long-awaited return to the backfield on the road against the Buccaneers on Sunday. The 49ers are 6.5-point favorites.
Following a Super Bowl appearance, San Francisco is off to a mediocre start to the season, sitting at 4-4 and one game back of the NFC West lead.
Injuries have played a huge role in the 49ers' slow start. Deebo Samuel has missed multiple games with various ailments, George Kittle missed a game, and Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending ACL injury in October. McCaffrey's absence has been the most impactful, unable to play so far this season after being placed on injured reserve with an Achilles injury.
Statistically, the 49ers' offense still ranks among the best. The club boasts the third-best scoring offense and second-best total offense. Even without McCaffrey, San Francisco averages the third-most rushing yards per game.
But numbers don't tell the whole story when evaluating the reigning Offensive Player of the Year's absence. McCaffrey's gravity as an elusive back and pass-catching threat forces defenses to gear game plans around him. His presence makes the entire offense's job easier, including that of quarterback Brock Purdy, who was regressed without his reliable running back.
But oddsmakers won't bail on San Francisco's chances with McCaffrey back. The 49ers have the second-best odds to win the NFC (+500) and fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+850), although those odds have lengthened from +225 and +500, respectively. They're also still favored to win the division (+110) ahead of the first-place Cardinals (+200) and 4-4 Rams (+375), who've both already beaten the Niners.
San Francisco started the season with an 81% implied probability of making the playoffs, but that's now down to 63%.
So, what should we expect from McCaffrey in his return? Head coach Kyle Shanahan shouldn't provide him with a huge workload immediately. However, his props indicate he'll be featured regularly. His rushing attempts prop is 14.5 and his rushing yards prop is 69.5, slightly lower than the 17 carries and 71 rushing yards he averaged last season.
The superstar's pass-catching ability adds a new dynamic to the 49ers' offense. Last season, he averaged five catches and 46 receiving yards per game. His receptions prop against Tampa Bay is 3.5 and his receiving yards prop is 25.5.
McCaffrey is -250 to find the end zone. He tallied 14 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving touchdowns in 16 regular-season games last season.
He's also the favorite to score the game's first touchdown at +325. McCaffrey's understudy, Jordan Mason took on a ton of responsibility at the start of the season, but he's seen a reduction in carries in recent weeks and trails McCaffrey at +450 to score first. Mason has three touchdowns this season. Another prop offered is McCaffrey to catch a pass on the 49ers' first drive at +105.
McCaffrey's presence immediately resurrects San Francisco from mediocrity to Super Bowl contention. But McCaffrey must stay healthy, and it might take a few weeks before his impact is fully felt.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.