Thanksgiving betting preview: Can Lions keep win streak alive vs. Bears?

What's Thanksgiving Day without football? It's not the prettiest holiday slate, but it's good enough to prop yourself on the couch, fill your stomach with turkey, and bet the board.

Game 1 - 12:30 p.m. ET

As is tradition, the Lions will host the first game of the Thanksgiving Day slate when they welcome the Bears to Ford Field. Detroit has a firm grasp of the division lead at 10-1, while 4-7 Chicago is fighting to keep its season alive.

Case for Bears

• The Lions have a top-five run defense and a bottom-eight pass defense. Granted, that number is skewed because teams are constantly trailing the Lions and forced to pass.
• But there's optimism that Caleb Williams, who performed well in a comeback Sunday that ultimately fell short against the Vikings, will play a quality game against an exploitable pass defense.
• This is a desperate spot for the Bears, who will effectively be out of the wild-card race with a loss.

Case for Lions

• Do we ever need to present a case for the Lions? They have the best record in the NFC, the highest-scoring offense, and the best scoring margin.
• Their rushing attack is unstoppable and the passing game is equally as prolific. The Lions are first in the NFC North, and the Bears are last.
• While Detroit's offense gets the praise, its defense allows the second-fewest points per game (16.6).

Key trends

• Detroit is 37-45-2 straight up on Thanksgiving but 8-4 against the spread (ATS) in its past 12 holiday games.
• The Bears are 20-15-2 straight up on Thanksgiving.
• The Lions have the league's best ATS record at 9-2. They're also 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
• Chicago hasn't covered a spread (0-3-1) as the road team.
• Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have never won on Thanksgiving together.

Pick: Bears +10.5

This is a massive spread for a game between division rivals on a short week. The Lions aren't just beating teams, they're destroying them. Detroit's average margin of victory over its past five games is 23. However, Chicago has a solid defense and a quarterback trending in the right direction. The Bears should keep this within the number.

Game 2 - 4:30 p.m. ET

If your family's complaining you're watching too much football, this is the three-hour block to spend time with them. This game looked much more appealing before the season. However, the Giants and Cowboys are having disastrous campaigns, meaning households will be served a Tommy DeVito-Cooper Rush matchup with their Thanksgiving Day feast.

Case for Giants

• The DeVito portion of the Giants' season has begun. New York (2-9) moved on from Daniel Jones last week after six mostly pathetic years.
• But things only got worse Sunday in an embarrassing 30-7 home loss to the Buccaneers. It's nearly impossible to make a solid case for the Giants to win a game the rest of the season.
• New York's only hope is to eliminate a Cowboys passing game led by a backup quarterback. The Giants allow the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, and the Cowboys have a nonexistent rushing attack.

Case for Cowboys

• Rush is a competent backup QB. He's 6-3 as a starter and has thrown for more than 600 yards the past two weeks.
• Despite the statistics and final scores, Dallas' defense is still solid with linebacker Micah Parsons, whose two sacks and eight tackles helped the Cowboys (4-7) upset the Commanders last week.
• The Giants have the league's worst scoring offense.

Key trends

• The Cowboys are 33-22-1 on Thanksgiving.
• Both groups have two of the worst ATS records in the league at 3-8 apiece.
• Dallas hasn't won a home game this season (0-5) and has failed to cover in all five.
• The Giants are 2-2 ATS as an away underdog.
• The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their past five Thanksgiving Day games.

Pick: Cowboys -4

The Giants are a lifeless football team and DeVito's magic might have run out after last season. The Cowboys showed signs of life in a thrilling win over Washington. Dallas has an advantage at almost every positional group, while the Giants have quit on their season.

Game 3 - 8:20 p.m. ET

The Dolphins travel north to Green Bay for a date with the Packers to close out the holiday slate. Miami is trying to climb back into the AFC wild-card picture while Green Bay heats up.

Case for Dolphins

• The Dolphins have won three in a row and look like a Tua Tagovailoa-led offense again. They're averaging 29 points over their past five contests since Tagovailoa returned from a concussion.
• Miami is 5-6 and still in the playoff hunt, meaning every game is crucial for the rest of the season.
• As the Dolphins' offense regains form, their defense has been solid, ranking sixth in yards allowed.

Case for Packers

• The Packers (8-3) have won six of their past seven and are fresh off a 38-10 beatdown of the 49ers. Their only loss during that span was to the 10-1 Lions.
• Jordan Love's been inconsistent, but Green Bay's offense relies on the league's third-best rushing attack to move the ball. Josh Jacobs is third in the NFL in rushing yards.

Key trends

• The Packers are 15-20-2 on Thanksgiving.
• Miami and Green Bay are both 5-6 ATS, but the Dolphins have covered four straight. The Packers covered one of their past five games.
• The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS in all three of their Thanksgiving games this century.
• Tagovailoa is 4-9 ATS in prime-time night games.

Pick: Dolphins +3

It's hard to ignore how dominant the Dolphins' offense has been since Tagovailoa returned. The Packers are playing their best football lately, but Miami is desperate. Its playoff hopes are likely over if it suffers another loss.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.